Researches

13.10.2026

South Korea’s Structural Fragility and the Risk of a 1997-Style Crisis

The analysis assesses South Korea’s structural economic vulnerabilities, emphasizing export dependence, mounting household debt, demographic decline, geopolitical uncertainty, and delayed reforms as interconnected risks that could lead to a prolonged economic crisis reminiscent of 1997.

11.10.2026

The World at a Turning Point: Elections, Political Instability and the Growing Nuclear Risk

The analysis explores the growing threats to global stability amid political uncertainty, electoral shifts, and escalating conflicts involving the United States, Russia, Iran, and Israel. It highlights concerns over the concentration of presidential power, the risk of nuclear escalation, and the erosion of democratic checks and balances, warning that decisions taken by world leaders today could have profound implications for international security in 2027.

07.10.2026

Serbia today does not need a new wall, but a bridge

The article is a timely call for dialogue, reconciliation and political responsibility in Serbia, stressing that political and social differences should be addressed through democratic engagement rather than confrontation. Its central message—that Serbia needs bridges, not divisions, alongside the rule of law, economic development and opportunities for young people—makes it constructive and forward-looking.

06.10.2026

Between Deficit and Dialogue – Seeking Balance in Europe-China Relations

China’s economy remains resilient but faces mounting structural pressures, including weak domestic demand, the real estate crisis, excess capacity, and rising geopolitical tensions. For Europe, this represents both an economic challenge and a strategic test, requiring stronger industrial resilience, trade diversification, and reduced strategic dependencies while pursuing a balanced relationship with China based on reciprocity, transparency, and fair competition.

02.10.2026

Serbia after Aleksandar Vučić’s second term: between political continuity and a new institutional phase

The analysis examines Serbia’s political and institutional transition following Aleksandar Vučić’s departure from the presidency, with a particular focus on the prospects for his continued political influence, the strengthening of institutional autonomy, domestic polarisation, Serbia’s European integration process, and its relations with the major global powers.

30.09.2026

General Elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina 2026: Bosnia and Herzegovina facing a choice – can 4 October deliver a political shock?

The analysis examines Bosnia and Herzegovina’s 2026 General Elections as a potential turning point, focusing on whether voters can shift the political pattern from fear- and identity-driven mobilisation towards greater accountability, institutional effectiveness and measurable results.

29.09.2026

From a geography of blocs to a geography of civilisations: Europe between Minsk, Belgrade and the Adriatic

The analysis examines Europe’s transition from bloc-based geopolitics toward a geography of civilisational connectivity, emphasizing the strategic role of Minsk, Belgrade and the Adriatic through infrastructure, interdependence, institutional dialogue and regional cooperation.

27.09.2026

Capitalising Migration: From Remittances to Strategic Investment

The analysis presents the “Diaspora Hedge Fund” as an institutional framework for transforming remittances and diaspora savings into professionally managed development capital through multilateral financial mechanisms. It argues that migration should be viewed not only as a policy challenge, but also as a potential source of investment, knowledge, entrepreneurship and long-term socio-economic development.

24.09.2026

Serbia 2026: Early parliamentary elections – a test of political legitimacy and Serbia's future direction

The analysis examines Serbia’s 25 October 2026 early parliamentary elections as a pivotal test of political legitimacy, institutional stability and social polarisation, focusing on the role of Aleksandar Vučić, the emerging student movement, the fragmented opposition, Serbia’s international positioning and the potential post-election political configurations.

22.09.2026

Bosnia and Herzegovina 2026: Lobbying and/or political deal-making?

The analysis examines the boundary between legitimate lobbying and political influence-buying, focusing on Republika Srpska’s lobbying in Washington, FARA disclosures, public funding, and the case of Milorad Dodik. It calls for transparency, legal scrutiny and independent institutional review.

20.09.2026

A Process for a More Stable Gulf

In “A Process for a More Stable Gulf,” the Rt Hon Geoffrey Hoon explores the case for a permanent, regionally owned Gulf security process inspired by the Helsinki experience. He highlights Oman’s potential role in facilitating sustained dialogue, confidence-building and regional cooperation, enabling Gulf states to play a greater role in shaping their own security order.

17.09.2026

Nuclear Realism and Japan’s Choice: The Comparative Limitations of the Saudi Model and the Justification for Independent Nuclear Armament under a "Three-Front Nuclear Threat"

This study tests whether the “Saudi Model” of nuclear restraint—based on external deterrence, strategic ambiguity and nuclear hedging—can be applied to Japan. It finds that Japan’s exposure to China, Russia and North Korea fundamentally changes the strategic calculus, making the Saudi model structurally inapplicable to East Asia.