The war in Ukraine was triggered by Russia’s error in judgement with regard to the domestic situation in Ukraine and its bet on a pale reaction of the European Union and the US. The conflict in Ukraine is more than a political conflict, is more than a conflict dominated by economic interests and, at a deeper level it has anthropological dimensions.
In W. Balkans countries there is an alternative to membership in the EU, because so far the EU policy for the region was based on different forms of conditioning, blackmailing and humiliations and has never been completely honest. People feel major resistance towards such a treatment by the EU. The award of the candidate status to BiH is at least a decade late, whereas with the establishment of the new government in BiH Putinians will get institutional control of the country
Due to emergence of Asia, Europe will never be as central to the US and Russia as it used to be after the WWII, least after Brexit. Therefore, an old Continent will have to focus on ensuring the survival of its own model of multilateralism before being again able to claim any global ambition. There is no time for re-invention of European postcolonial cartography – be it Kiev, Khartoum or Kinshasa.
Analysts believe that the incidents on Kosovo should be understood extremely seriously and that all necessary measures should be undertaken to ensure that they do not happen again, because the current situation in the region and Europe, in the context of the Ukraine crisis, is a real security challenge and threat. Such a method of resolution of generated crises only postpones a conflict, which is becoming increasingly certain.
Now, Russia is more and more isolated at international level and no one in Moscow seems to gain anything from this military intervention, except the arms industry. The only possible solution could be an implosion of the Putin regime and democratization of Russia. Any other option would only perpetuate the conflicting state of world affairs, leading to a return to the bipolar world (along US and China respectively) and to a general deterioration of living standards for common people
On December 8, 2022, the meeting of the Council of Justice and Home Affairs, which had on its agenda topics concerning the expansion of the Schengen area to include new countries took place in Brussels. Formal votes were to be cast in favour of Croatia, Romania and Bulgaria. Croatia was accepted while Romania and Bulgaria, who were long supposed to join together the area, were vetoed by Austria and the Netherlands (the latter mentioned it voted only against Bulgaria’s joining the area)
Ever since the 18th century on, European notion that civilization was the monopoly of the West, clearly implied that there is no civilization – and therefore,salvation – outside the western model. To comply fully with this new myth and infallibility of such narrative, the civilizational late comer from the geographic suburbia – actually a remote peninsular northerly extension of the huge Asian continental mass – started calling itself an Old Continent.
A turning point for the geopolitical position of Türkiye in the modern world is its key role in the negotiations between Russia and Ukraine after the breakout of war, as it facilitated the agreement on export of grain to Third World countries in 2022. Analysts believe that a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine is inconceivable without an active role of Türkiye. Türkiye is no longer a “sick man”, nor is it any longer “unwanted” for the West.
However, despite its (unwritten) commitment to respect this request, NATO has not kept its promise by continuing to expand to the countries of Eastern Europe to include, among others, Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic (1999), the Baltic countries (2004) and to grow from 17 to 30 members within it, currently.
The EU should not perceive itself from the position of Europe centrism, because the era of “courtship of the West” is at its end. Every country pursues its policy in line with its interests and has different offers and solutions for its future on the table. The EU is no longer the only offer and option on the menu of Western Balkans countries. The ball is in the EU’s court now.
Putin will reappear if the present stalemate is favourable to him; otherwise he will let his generals run things, or appear to, so they can carry the blame if things go wrong. The end game is in sight, but don’t hold your breath!
Analysts warn that while the EU sets new conditions and criteria for membership, there are EU member countries that could not fully met the membership conditions set to Western Balkans. In the recent history, EU “turned a blind eye” in the case of Bulgaria and Rumania, as well as Croatia, when it granted them full-fledged membership. Another testimony of unprincipledness of the EU is the fact that in 2004 no less than 9.5 countries were coopted into the EU, as only half of Cyprus became a member.