At the next elections the old-new modified election model of “Reinforced proportional representation” will be in force. The party that wins the largest number of votes in percentages will be granted an additional number (bonus) of mandates in the Parliament. There are high chances that the New Democracy will win more than 40% of votes and thus win the maximum possible bonus mandates (5o). This means it is possible to get between 157 and 163 mandates of 300 in the Parliament…
It would not be realistic to expect to see the end of the “Gulf oil in exchange for US protection” equation, because for the time being it has no alternative. One should also not expect that in the foreseeable future China and Russia will become an alternative in the region in which the US have dozens of their military bases ranging from Kuwait to Oman with around 40,000 soldiers. The Gulf weapons are predominantly of US descent.
The next weeks and months are important in the Ukraine war. Attention will be divided between the war itself and the awaited Ukraine counter- offensive, and the huge clean up works that the breaking of the Nova Kakhovka dam has created.
Analysts also believe that the anti-Đukanović and anti-DPS block will be led by the newly established “Europe Now” Movement, which will include a coalition headed by Dritan Abazović and Aleksa Bečić (Aleksa and Dritan – Hrabro se broji /Bravery counts/-Democrats and URA), Nova srpska demokratija /New Serb Democracy/, and parties from the Bosniak, Albanian and Croat community.
Democratic changes in Montenegro are an unstoppable and irreversible process. The new Government should strengthen its democratic capacity with the political forces that comprise the so-called anti-Đukanović and anti-DPS block. The elections will be decided by the young voters and their massive turnout at the elections. Montenegro must not be a victim of radical Montenegrin nationalism and Orthodox clericalism.The presidential elections have demonstrated that Montenegro is coming out of such a situation.
For the first time in several last election cycles, the public opinion polls do not indicate that any party could currently win by a landslide and then establish the government on its own. All this is complicated by the current election model. Coalitions are not popular in Greece but are also not impossible. Possible subsequent elections using the old-new adjusted model of bonus representatives would give an edge to the largest party.
Judging by everything, the local elections will cause establishment of an interim government that will organize early parliamentary elections and a peaceful transition of government. Edi Rama’s biggest “success” is that during his tenure he had strengthened the position of Albania as by far the poorest country in Europe.
Analysts believe the fact that the NATO alliance, but also the EU and US, tolerate such actions of security-intelligence services of their member countries in North Macedonia is a point of concern. Particularly as such actions are not aimed only against the national interests of a sovereign member country, but also against the interests of NATO itself.
The elections in Türkiye will be an important moment for expression of the will of Turkish citizens and definition of the political and economic path of the country for the future, as well as achievement of political stability and economic progress, its affirmation in international relations and strengthening of the Turkish role at the regional and international level.
It is very unlikely that renewed transnational trust and a new international order will be implemented peacefully from scratch. This makes it all the more important to breathe new life into the existing mechanisms and, in parallel, allow for conflict resolution by enhanced diplomacy, fully recognizing that it may require the “powerful drilling through hard boards”. Europe, and Austria as a well reputed host country, could play a vital role therein...
Analysts believe that there are no normal conditions in place for organization of elections, that it is possible to expect tensions similar to those form last year and that the situation after the local elections could become further complicated and contribute to permanent cutting of ties between the Serb community and Kosovo authorities. As a result they believe that it is necessary to introduce a moratorium on the presence on special police force in the north of Kosovo or, as a compromise solution...
This analysis aims at relaunching the debate, briefly describing the main tenants of the sectarian power-sharing on which the country is based and presenting some different points of view by Lebanese scholars on the thorny issue of the consociational system and its (potential) relationship with the territorial setting of the country.