22.01.2024
The new US president would have to make a major shift in Washington’s North Korea policy, away from a deterrence-centered strategy toward one prioritizing engagement, the resumption of diplomacy, and arms control instead of denuclearization. North Korea will remain uninterested in diplomacy as long as the US’ current policy remains unchanged. The same is true for its stance toward South Korea.
17.01.2024
According to international law experts, proving "genocidal intent" and conflating war crimes with genocide are the most significant challenges in this case. For now, the ICJ lacks concrete evidence other than dozens of statements made by Israeli officials expressing intent to commit genocide. Without these statements, it's unlikely the lawsuit would have reached this stage, and Israel might not have taken this issue so seriously.
15.01.2024
If the Americans put pressure on the Israeli government to halt by a certain date, soon, and work diligently with a positive Israeli government, altered from that of today, there is a chance to make peace work. Biden is seeking re-election against ‘the Donald’ and losing badly in the polls, puzzling though it may be. Unfortunately, he does not show willingness to take a harder line which is necessary. If he does show some firmness, then he would surely gain some kudos.
10.01.2024
By engaging with a very volatile state with a fragile economy under the control of the radical Islamist group Taliban in a tussle for power against the struggling, yet lethal, ISKP, the spill-over effect not only poses a serious risk to Kazakhstan’s domestic security, but to the region as a whole. That said, tracing the trajectory, Astana could potentially involve neighbouring Central Asian economies, in the first half of 2024...
04.01.2024
The clash between the blocs resulting from the “fragmented Third World War” will result in a decrease in foreign investments and their concentration within national boundaries; “nationalism” and “national interest” are part of an era of scarcity. The likelihood that the African Century will remain largely incomplete is significant and real.
28.12.2023
If Russia continues to stand firm, every defeat in each war-torn village on the periphery of the former USSR will be perceived as a direct defeat for the United States, which is a catastrophe in itself. For years, the U.S. has governed the world primarily through fear and the myth of invincibility. If this prevailing myth and fear disappear, Washington could fall into the hands of barbarians much faster than Rome fell to the Visigoths.
26.12.2023
With the lack of any teeth in the last UN resolution Netanyahu has continued his bombing campaign, and has said it would take months to wipe Hamas out completely. His aim. By then he will have destroyed the Gaza strip altogether and driven most of the Palestinians into the Sinai. Meanwhile he has encouraged the armed Israeli settlers to continue illegally take more of the West Bank. Perhaps, from the River to the Sea meant that land would all be held by Israel!
20.12.2023
You may recall that Tsipras rose SYRIZA from being a party with a modest rating to being the ruling party in the country. The question is will someone manage to repeat the success of SYRIZA, that is which party will be able to become a new SYRIZA - but this time in the radical right wing.
14.12.2023
Specific domestic and foreign actors harbour an interest in turning Serbia into a ‘joint-stock company,’ wherein each entity would wield influence through a specific portfolio of shares. The ongoing struggle revolves around acquiring a controlling stake in these shares. If realized, this would be detrimental to Serbia, its democracy, and its citizens, as their voices would be devalued and derogated. Serbia would be governed by ‘shareholders’ rather than its democratically elected representatives.
11.12.2023
So, not out of pessimism, but from the conclusions that only an analysis based on “realpolitik” and not the much-proclaimed today "political correctness" can derive, I can say, without fear of being wrong, that the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is still far from finding a lasting solution after over 70 years, during which wounds on both sides have not healed, and new ones have even appeared.
10.12.2023
Analysts contend that a faction of opposition political parties in Serbia is funded by tycoons, while another segment secures financing from foreign centres of power. Through such means, they seek to regain lost influence and reclaim dominion over Serbia. Substantial resources are at their disposal for this endeavour, united by a shared interest in overthrowing Aleksandar Vučić from power.
04.12.2023
The war of Khartoum in Darfur and in the border areas, manifest the rifts in Sudanese society: Arabs vs. Africans, center vs. periphery, and between Muslims on the one hand and Christians and those with traditional African religions on the other.
