The International Institute for Middle Eastern and Balkan Studies (IFIMES)[1], headquartered in Ljubljana, Slovenia, conducts regular analyses of developments in the Middle East, the Balkans, and globally. Ahead of the local elections in Kosovo, set for 12 October 2025, IFIMES has released a follow-up analysis examining the political climate in the final phase of the campaign. Drawing on the comprehensive study “Local elections in Kosovo 2025: the role of Russia, the US and the EU in reshaping the political landscape”, the article presents the highlights and key findings, offering a clear overview of political trends, challenges and opportunities for dialogue between Pristina and Belgrade, as well as for the integration of ethnic communities within Kosovo’s institutions.
The fifth local elections in Kosovo since its declaration of independence in 2008 are scheduled for 12 October, with the second round to follow on 2 November. Voters across 38 municipalities will elect mayors and members of municipal assemblies.
The International Institute IFIMES has previously published an analysis entitled “Local elections in Kosovo 2025: between institutional deadlock and a test of democracy” (29 September 2025), available at: https://www.ifimes.org/en/researches/local-elections-in-kosovo-2025-between-institutional-deadlock-and-a-test-of-democracy/5618?
The outcome of these elections will have a decisive impact on Kosovo’s political stability, the integration of minority communities and the country’s international position. Should the Self-Determination Movement (LVV) retain or expand its control over the majority of municipalities, this would reinforce Prime Minister Albin Kurti’s standing in negotiations with international stakeholders. However, it could further deepen internal polarisation, especially if the opposition and the Serb community perceive the elections as neither fair nor transparent.
On the other hand, a strong performance by the opposition parties—the Democratic Party of Kosovo (PDK), the Democratic League of Kosovo (LDK) and the Alliance for the Future of Kosovo (AAK)—could act as a catalyst for the creation of a broader political coalition capable of taking the initiative in stabilising the political scene and reviving dialogue with Belgrade under the EU’s auspices.
The international community is closely monitoring the implementation of the 2023 European Plan for the Normalisation of Relations and its annex adopted in Ohrid. The manner in which the local elections are conducted will serve as an indicator of Kosovo’s commitment to honouring its international obligations, particularly those concerning the establishment of the Association of Serb-majority Municipalities (ASM) and the protection of minority rights.
The engagement of international actors, particularly the United States and the European Union, remains crucial. Washington has adopted a more reserved stance towards Albin Kurti’s government over outstanding obligations, even though Kosovo still occupies a strategic place in US policy in the Western Balkans. Brussels, meanwhile, seeks to maintain dialogue through conditionality mechanisms and financial assistance. Divergent approaches within the EU persist: Germany and France favour stronger pressure and closer political oversight of Kosovo’s authorities, while countries such as Croatia and Slovenia advocate a more constructive approach focused on strengthening institutional dialogue. This raises the question of whether the countries of the former Yugoslavia are genuinely contributing to Kosovo’s stabilisation or, instead, further complicating the situation.
The NATO KFOR mission has reinforced its presence in sensitive areas of northern Kosovo, signalling its assessment that the security situation remains unstable. While no major incidents are anticipated during the local elections, KFOR’s presence also carries psychological weight – helping to ease tensions among the Serb population, yet at the same time serving as a reminder of unresolved political and ethnic divisions.
In October 2025, Russia assumes the presidency of the UN Security Council, where the agenda is expected to feature discussions on Kosovo and Bosnia and Herzegovina.
In relation to Kosovo, Russia remains an unavoidable international player due to its long-standing ties with Serbia and its opposition to the international recognition of Kosovo’s independence. Its influence on the local elections is reflected in diplomatic engagement with Belgrade, political connections with the Serb List, as well as media and information activities. Russia also indirectly affects the security climate in northern Kosovo by monitoring potential flashpoints and voicing its views on unilateral actions undertaken by Pristina.
Through these activities, Russia helps shape the broader regional context and takes part in discussions on the implementation of the Brussels Agreement and the establishment of the Association of Serb-majority Municipalities (ASM). The 2025 local elections therefore have an international dimension as well, with Moscow participating as one of the relevant external actors.
Kosovo does not exist in isolation. Political developments in neighbouring countries – particularly Serbia, Montenegro and North Macedonia – directly affect the situation in Pristina. Potential snap elections in Serbia in 2026 could further politicise the Kosovo question, while political changes in Montenegro and internal divisions in North Macedonia add to the region’s instability. Meanwhile, Albania inevitably plays its part, seeking to assume a form of “guardianship” over Kosovo.
Intelligence and security reports point to the presence of parallel structures, transnational economic networks and international organised crime, all of which pose a serious threat to regional security. The 2025 local elections thus serve as an important test of Kosovo’s institutional capacity to uphold public order and prevent interference from extra-institutional power centres.
One of the key challenges following the local elections will be addressing citizens’ growing socio-economic frustrations. According to the Kosovo Agency of Statistics, the unemployment rate in 2024 was 10.8%, while emigration – particularly since visa liberalisation – continues to rise. Citizens are increasingly calling for tangible progress in economic development, infrastructure and public services, while showing diminishing trust in populist and nationalist rhetoric.
Municipalities with strong diaspora influence – such as Pristina, Prizren, Peja, Gjakova and Gjilan – face a paradox: remittances from abroad help stabilise local budgets but at the same time ease the pressure on authorities to pursue structural reforms and create new jobs. After the elections, local administrations will be expected to demonstrate greater transparency and efficiency in managing public resources.
If the local elections are held in line with international standards, they could mark a new phase in the dialogue between Belgrade and Pristina. The key issue continues to be the establishment of the ASM and the implementation of existing agreements, under EU mediation and with US support. The European Commission has already indicated that its assessment of the elections will be an important factor in the forthcoming report on Kosovo’s progress, particularly in the chapters relating to the rule of law, anti-corruption efforts and the protection of minorities.
For Kosovo, restoring credibility on the international stage requires political stability and a constructive relationship with minority communities, particularly Serbs. Without this, European integration will remain a declarative goal lacking real substance.
The Serb List (SL) is one of the key political actors in Kosovo, particularly across the ten Serb-majority municipalities—North Mitrovica, Zubin Potok, Leposavić, Zvečan, Gračanica, Štrpce, Klokot, Ranilug, Novo Brdo and Parteš—which are envisaged as members of the Association of Serb-majority Municipalities (ASM) under the Brussels Agreement. Acting as a bridge between local communities and Belgrade, the SL plays a pivotal role in the political processes in northern Kosovo, backed by the strong support from Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić.
The SL’s presence in local institutions enables the party to influence decisions concerning education, healthcare, culture, infrastructure and municipal services. The SL continues to advocate for the implementation of the Brussels Agreement and the establishment of the Association of Serb-majority Municipalities (ASM), which provides a framework for safeguarding minority rights and fostering a more stable political environment. It also participates in the EU-facilitated dialogue between Kosovo and Serbia.
The SL’s campaign centres on preserving the status of Serb-majority municipalities, strengthening the institutional presence of Serbs and securing the community’s legal protection. Although formally a political party, the SL maintains strong links with institutions in Belgrade, and its electoral performance may shape both the participation of Serbs in Kosovo’s institutions and the way Kosovo is perceived internationally.
In essence, the Serb List remains a central actor within Kosovo’s political and institutional landscape, and its results in the 2025 elections could have a decisive impact on the integration of the Serb community and the implementation of previously agreed commitments, including the establishment of the ASM.
The 2025 local elections are a crucial test of Kosovo’s political stability and strategic positioning. The Self-Determination Movement (LVV), the leading Albanian political force, and the Serb List (SL), the principal representative of the Serb community, hold a pivotal role in shaping Kosovo’s political future. The outcome of the elections will determine not only the distribution of local power but also demonstrate Kosovo’s capacity to integrate minority communities, ensure the protection of Serb rights and reinforce institutional stability.
The Serb List’s participation in local institutions is a key factor in maintaining peace and preventing ethnic polarisation, while the success of the LVV reaffirms the legitimacy of Albin Kurti’s government and bolsters Kosovo’s position in dialogue with international partners and Belgrade. The elections provide an opportunity for a fresh start – through the consolidation of local self-government, the reaffirmation of democratic values and the deepening of Kosovo’s strategic partnership with the West.
If the elections are conducted in a legitimate and transparent manner, they could lay the groundwork for Kosovo’s long-term stability, the integration of Serbs into national institutions and the strengthening of the country’s European and international standing. Otherwise, Kosovo faces the risk of institutional paralysis, political crisis and international isolation.
Ljubljana/Washington/Bruxelles/Priština, 7 October 2025
[1] IFIMES – The International Institute for Middle Eastern and Balkan Studies, headquartered in Ljubljana, Slovenia, has held special consultative status with the United Nations Economic and Social Council (ECOSOC), New York, since 2018 and is the publisher of the international scientific journal European Perspectives. Available at: https://www.europeanperspectives.org/en
