The International Institute for Middle East and Balkan Studies (IFIMES)[1], based in Ljubljana, Slovenia, regularly monitors major political, security and geopolitical developments in the Middle East, the Balkans and the wider international arena, with a particular focus on the dynamics of international relations and shifts in the global balance of power. Following the presidential elections in the United States, IFIMES published an analytical study examining potential directions of the new administration’s foreign policy, identifying Latin America as a key arena of intersecting interests among the United States, China and Russia, with particular emphasis on Venezuela. The study, “USA 2026: Geopolitical turning point and the reaffirmation of the Monroe Doctrine in the western hemisphere”, analyses key strategic decisions and their long-term consequences, providing an overview of the contemporary reinterpretation of the Monroe Doctrine and its impact on the global distribution of power.
Contemporary international relations are marked by increasingly intense strategic competition between the West, led by the United States, and the People’s Republic of China, while Russia simultaneously seeks to preserve or expand its presence in regions of vital importance. This confrontation goes beyond purely economic dimensions and encompasses political and security aspects, with a focus on key resources, transport routes and sensitive regions. Such processes affect the distribution of power in the western hemisphere and require careful monitoring of regional developments.
The administration of President Donald J. Trump responded to these challenges through a combination of diplomatic initiatives, economic instruments and carefully calibrated pressure, aimed at safeguarding US interests in the region and managing the influence of other global actors. In the context of Latin America, and especially Venezuela, the approach centred on maintaining stability and coordinating with regional partners. In contrast to previous administrations, Trump’s policy prioritised the rapid implementation of defined strategic priorities.
The overthrow of Nicolás Maduro on 3 January 2026 constitutes a significant moment in the United States’ approach to the region. While this move reflects the practical implementation of US strategy, responses from the international community and regional actors have varied, and the longer-term implications for regional balance and stability remain open to further assessment. Events in Venezuela underscore the intricate interplay between US interests and the influence of other global powers, pointing to the need for a nuanced and measured approach to international policy, while avoiding direct confrontation with the United States.
Boasting the world’s largest proven oil reserves[2]—estimated at around 303 billion barrels—Venezuela holds a pivotal position in the global energy landscape. However, long-standing institutional weaknesses, dilapidated infrastructure and a range of external political and economic pressures have led to a drastic decline in output—from 3.2 million barrels per day in the early 2000s to around 850,000 barrels in 2024.
The announcement in January 2026 regarding the entry of US energy companies signals a new phase of investment aimed at the rehabilitation and modernisation of the oil sector. These activities are expected to enable Venezuela’s reintegration into the global energy market, stabilise production capacity and potentially improve socio-economic conditions for the population. The model draws in part on experience from similar stabilisation initiatives elsewhere.
The US strategy underpinning this initiative brings together strategic oversight, targeted economic investment and coordination with regional partners, with the objective of upholding international standards and ensuring the stability of critical energy sectors. At the same time, it reflects broader geopolitical considerations, including the presence and influence of other global actors, notably China and Russia.
Throughout his presidential mandates (2017–2021 and 2025–2029), the administration of Donald J. Trump pursued a policy aimed at safeguarding the strategic interests of the United States in Venezuela and the wider region. The approach brought together diplomatic and economic measures designed to shape regional geopolitical dynamics and curtail the influence of other global powers, most notably China and Russia.
During the first term, the administration leveraged coordinated diplomatic and economic instruments to direct demands and ultimatums at the Nicolás Maduro regime, targeting policies perceived as going against American interests. During the second term, as the footprint of Beijing and Moscow in Venezuela expanded, this pressure intensified, culminating in the overthrow of Maduro on 3 January 2026. This event marked a turning point in the US approach to the region and demonstrated a synchronised deployment of diplomatic, economic and operational means.
Reactions within the international community were mixed: allies stressed the importance of coordination and support, while other states voiced concern over changes to the regional status quo, though without openly challenging Washington.
During Nicolás Maduro’s rule, Venezuela endured a profound economic and social crisis, with a sharp decline in oil production and surging poverty rates. The repercussions extended beyond the country’s borders, affecting the Venezuelan diaspora and neighbouring states, which witnessed a mass exodus of the Venezuelan population[3].
The US approach to Venezuela and the broader region combined diplomatic and economic measures aimed at maintaining stability and managing geopolitical risks. This strategy underscores Washington’s intent to recalibrate power arrangements and security frameworks to align with its interests, through close coordination with allies and regional partners, many of whom remain strongly dependent on the US presence.
Over the past two decades, China has turned credit diplomacy into a key tool of its foreign policy in Latin America. Rather than pursuing traditional forms of colonial expansion, Beijing has opted for a strategy built around targeted investments, large-scale infrastructure projects and long-term commercial deals—especially in countries with abundant natural resources, sizeable markets and vital transport corridors.
At the same time, these lending arrangements blur the line between finance and politics. Recipient states frequently turn to Chinese firms and technology, a dependence that can limit their autonomy when it comes to key infrastructure and energy decisions. Extended repayment schedules and bespoke lending terms give Beijing access to strategic commodities, while offering local partners much-needed capital and technical know-how to develop essential infrastructure.
Venezuela has emerged as one of the focal points[4] of China’s engagement in Latin America, with a particular focus on the Orinoco oil belt, refinery modernisation and transport infrastructure. Comparable initiatives have been rolled out in Brazil, Argentina, Ecuador and Peru, securing access to logistics hubs, energy assets and critical transport routes.
The core aim of China’s credit diplomacy extends well beyond short-term economic returns. Through these projects, Beijing cultivates long-term strategic ties with recipient countries and maintains a sustained presence in the region. While such arrangements can constrain national policy autonomy, they also open the door to capital and technology that would otherwise remain out of reach.
Beyond its economic and political implications, credit diplomacy also carries social and developmental consequences. Long-term debt commitments can squeeze funding for education, healthcare and local projects, while the involvement of foreign companies may sideline domestic firms in key sectors. A frequently cited European case is Montenegro, where Chinese loans for motorway construction have placed a heavy burden on public finances and sparked debate over the long-term sustainability of borrowing.
Overall, China’s credit diplomacy is a sophisticated instrument of strategic influence. Through financing arrangements, infrastructure projects and long-term agreements, Beijing expands its footprint, secures access to vital resources and steers policy choices in recipient countries in line with its broader political and economic objectives.
The US approach to Latin America is grounded in the protection of strategic interests, with a particular focus on Venezuela. Through diplomatic channels, economic instruments and policy oversight, Washington seeks to shape regional power dynamics and align its actions with local partners, reducing the risk that external powers gain lasting control over key resources and transport routes.
Venezuela stands out as a pivotal strategic arena due to its role in energy flows and regional stability. The modern interpretation of the Monroe Doctrine[5] has shifted US strategy from preventing European colonial expansion to curbing the access of new global players—most notably China and Russia—to resources and transport corridors across the western hemisphere.
The application of the doctrine involves continuous monitoring of infrastructural, political and economic activities by other actors, supported by a mix of diplomatic and economic tools, while military action remains a last-resort deterrent. The ousting of Nicolás Maduro on 3 January 2026 illustrates this strategy, echoing earlier interventions such as Panama in 1989, when the geostrategic contours of US interests were clearly defined.
The geopolitical situation in the region remains complex. Russian and Chinese involvement in energy and infrastructure continues to shape regional power relations and challenge US strategic objectives. Against this backdrop, US policy aims to maintain a balance of power, minimise the risk of destabilisation and coordinate actions with regional partners, preventing any external actor from gaining lasting dominance over key resources and transport routes.
Developments such as Maduro’s removal underscore the extent to which the United States actively monitors and steers regional power dynamics, drawing on diplomatic and economic instruments alongside strategic oversight. The broader objective is stability and predictability in the western hemisphere, pursued through cooperation with partners and allies.
The contemporary application of the Monroe Doctrine reflects the United States’ emphasis on maintaining stability and managing geostrategic interests across key regions. Rather than targeting specific states or ideological actors, this approach is framed around minimising the risk of destabilisation and protecting core US strategic interests.
Washington’s strategy shows its intent to shape international power dynamics through coordination with partners and allies. Allies—including Japan, South Korea, Pakistan, the United Arab Emirates, Israel, Egypt, Morocco, as well as countries of the Western Balkans, including Bosnia and Herzegovina—are assured of support in safeguarding their interests and regional stability[6]. At the same time, growing concerns among actors tied to Chinese and Russian investments underline the increasingly complex nature of regional and global interactions.
US policy messages carry global resonance. China has been cautioned against threats to Taiwan, Iran over Israeli security and the stability of the Persian Gulf, while the situation in the Caucasus—notably involving Armenia and Azerbaijan—attests to Washington’s vigilant monitoring of regional power flows in pursuit of balance.
This posture brings together diplomacy, economic leverage and a military backstop reserved for deterrence as a measure of last resort. The strategy highlights the imperative of respecting geostrategic boundaries and international norms, ensuring that allies and strategic partners are afforded the institutional and political backing to protect their interests.
Ljubljana/Washington/ Brussels, 9 January 2026
[1] IFIMES - International Institute for Middle East and Balkan Studies, based in Ljubljana, Slovenia, has a special consultative status with the United Nations Economic and Social Council ECOSOC/UN in New York since 2018, and it is the publisher of the international scientific journal "European Perspectives." Available at: https://www.europeanperspectives.org/en
[2] Venezuela's Resurging Oil Exports and Geopolitical Tensions: A Strategic Window for Energy Investors. Available at: https://www.ainvest.com/news/venezuela-resurging-oil-exports-geopolitical-tensions-strategic-window-energy-investors-2508/?
[3] According to UNHCR data and joint migration statistics, nearly 7.9 million Venezuelans have left their country and become migrants or refugees worldwide, mostly in countries in Latin America and the Caribbean. Available at: https://www.unhcr.org/emergencies/venezuela-situation?
[4] Is China’s Belt And Road Initiative A Trojan Horse?. Available at: https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2025/10/13/is-chinas-belt-and-road-initiative-a-trojan-horse/?
[5] Monroe Doctrine, 1823. Available at: https://history.state.gov/milestones/1801-1829/monroe
[6] Notice—Continuation of the National Emergency With Respect to the Western Balkans. Available at: https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/FR-2025-06-24/html/2025-11684.htm?
