The International Institute for Middle East and Balkan Studies (IFIMES[1]), based in Ljubljana, regularly monitors developments in the Middle East, the Balkans and globally. IFIMES has prepared an analysis of the parliamentary elections in Slovenia, scheduled for 22 March 2026, which represent a decisive juncture in the country’s future political, institutional and civilisational direction. The analysis sheds light on important issues of democracy, strategic stability and the tensions between policies of building and dismantling in times of global and domestic political challenges. We present the most significant and compelling findings from the comprehensive study entitled “Parliamentary elections 2026: The Slovenian choice: Liberal or illiberal democracy”.
Slovenia will hold its tenth parliamentary elections since independence on 22 March 2026, under a proportional representation system. The country is divided into eight electoral units, each comprising eleven electoral districts. A total of 1,698,352 registered voters are eligible to participate, with eleven parliamentary seats allocated in each electoral unit. The parliament comprises a total of 90 deputies.
A distinctive feature of the Slovenian electoral system lies in the constitutionally guaranteed representation of national communities. The Italian and Hungarian communities each elect one representative under a majority system, thereby further strengthening their institutional status. Members of these communities cast two ballots – one for the general electoral lists and another for the list of their respective national community – which constitutes a form of positive discrimination grounded in law and aimed at ensuring their effective parliamentary representation. The general electoral threshold for entry into the National Assembly is set at 4 per cent of valid votes; this requirement does not apply to representatives of the Italian and Hungarian communities.
The following parties, coalitions or lists are participating in the parliamentary elections: ● Freedom Movement ● Slovenian Democratic Party – SDS ● The Left and Vesna ● Democrats of Anže Logar ● New Slovenia, Slovenian People’s Party, Fokus Marko Lotrič ● Social Democrats – SD ● Revival – the party of Vladimir Prebilič ● Karl Erjavec – Party of Trust ● Greens of Slovenia + SG Generation Party ● Coalition Alternative for Slovenia (the None of This Party and the For a Healthy Society Party) ● Slovenian National Party – SNS ● We, the Socialists! ● Pirate Party of Slovenia ● Civic Movement Resni.ca ● Pavel Rupar’s Voice of Pensioners.
As Slovenia approaches its parliamentary elections, a fundamental question arises regarding the country’s future political and civilisational direction. Current political dynamics place Slovenia at a crossroads. Voters’ decisions will determine whether Slovenia continues on a path of institutional consolidation, social cohesion and European integration, or shifts towards confrontation, polarisation and the erosion of constitutional standards.
The view expressed by Slovenia’s first president, Milan Kučan, that the elections amount to a choice between “politics that build and politics that dismantle” goes beyond routine political rhetoric and points to a broader issue concerning the paradigm of national development amidst global upheaval. Slovenia enters this electoral cycle amid geopolitical, security, energy and environmental, and social transformations that are redefining the balance of power and relativising the relevance of smaller states.
In IFIMES’ assessment, the elections on 22 March are not merely a formal democratic procedure, but a decision with long-term implications for the stability of the political system. Isolated scandals and shortcomings must not overshadow the overall picture of positive change; the key lies in distinguishing systemic reforms — including progress in healthcare, energy policy, climate action and digitalisation — from individual political missteps or communication lapses. Kučan’s warning should therefore not be interpreted as a defence of any particular government, but rather as a call for a rational evaluation of both achievements and shortcomings.
Civilisational and environmental challenges remain a central concern for the future government. Slovenia, as part of the European political space, faces an energy transition, climate risks and security challenges stemming from the war in Ukraine and tensions in the Middle East. The coming government will need to focus on three key priorities: the green transformation of the economy, the bolstering of institutional resilience, and the preservation of the welfare state amidst constraints on public finances.
Against this backdrop, the distinction between “building” and “dismantling” primarily reflects the difference between gradual adaptation to complex changes and radical interventions undertaken without a long-term strategy. The elections, therefore, represent a civilisational test, as voters’ decisions will determine whether Slovenia remains part of the Enlightenment tradition of rational dialogue and democratic culture, or slides into an authoritarian and ideologically dark period.
The International Institute IFIMES emphasises that the ensuing political dynamics will affect not just the composition of the government, but the very stability of democracy, respect for human rights and the quality of public discourse. In this regard, the institutional framework, political culture and the long-term vision for the country’s development will remain paramount.
Although the first president of the Republic of Slovenia, Milan Kučan, no longer formally holds the levers of power, he remains one of the most influential symbolic figures of the nation’s transition and independence. His enduring public presence demonstrates that part of the political spectrum remains anchored in the state-building narrative. IFIMES contends that the first president’s symbolic capital exerts a dual effect: it mobilises a segment of the electorate that identifies with stability and continuity, while simultaneously sharpening polarisation among voters who perceive the transitional elite as part of the problem. Consequently, the elections also unfold at a symbolic level — between interpretations of the past and projections of the future.
The Slovenian political space remains divided between two relatively stable blocs, presenting a structural challenge for the incoming administration. IFIMES assesses that the primary hurdle will not only lie in the composition of the coalition, but above all in the capacity to mitigate political and social polarisation. In this context, the politics of “dismantling” manifests itself as the delegitimisation of institutions, the subordination of the rule of law to particular interests and the promotion of conflict as the primary tool of political mobilisation. By contrast, the politics of “building” implies gradual reform, respect for constitutional mechanisms and the pursuit of a broader social consensus.
IFIMES assesses that the forthcoming elections will effectively represent a referendum on institutional stability and the future direction of the country’s development. At a time when a new global architecture is taking shape, a small country such as Slovenia can ill afford internal destabilisation. The main issue is not only which political option will prevail, but whether the post-election dynamics will enable a stable and programmatically consistent government capable of tempering ideological tensions and securing Slovenia’s position at the heart of European integration.
Ultimately, Kučan’s thesis about a choice between building and dismantling is not merely a rhetorical flourish, but a stark warning that political culture and institutional accountability remain the bedrock of long-term national sovereignty and social cohesion.
Slovenia stands at a crucial political and civilisational crossroads, where the forthcoming elections will determine the country’s future trajectory. An analysis of public discourse, cultural symbols and political statements reveals a clear conflict between the culture of democracy and growing authoritarian tendencies—currents that history identifies with the hallmarks of fascism.
The Slovenian cultural landscape is symbolically tethered to the cultural holiday of 8 February, which reminds Slovenians of the values embodied by France Prešeren, the country’s greatest poet and one of the cultural pillars of Slovenian statehood. Today, culture is not merely a matter of artistic creativity, but a foundation of civilisational standards, rational dialogue and respect for human rights. IFIMES observes that Slovenian society is increasingly drifting away from these principles due to both global and domestic political challenges, while at the same time witnessing the rise of populist and authoritarian tendencies.
The core question remains: will political parties and voters opt to strengthen democratic institutions and cultural values, or will they succumb to a politics of fear, hatred and retrograde ideologies?
The rhetoric and political strategy of the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS/EPP) are particularly critical. How other political actors define their position on cooperation with the party will directly influence the stability of democracy, respect for human rights and the quality of public discourse.
The Slovenian elections transcend a mere formal political event; they represent a civilisational litmus test. Voters will determine whether Slovenia remains anchored in the Enlightenment tradition, rational dialogue and democratic culture, or slides into authoritarianism and ideological obscurantism.
Slovenian society has the opportunity to demonstrate that culture is not a luxury, but the very bulwark of democracy, which protects the individual and fortifies society’s resilience against extremism. IFIMES will continue to monitor these political and cultural developments with the aim of supporting the stability of the political system, the transparency of institutional governance and adherence to international standards and democratic principles.
The forthcoming parliamentary elections are of central importance for Slovenia’s political and civilisational direction. Voters’ decisions will determine whether the country continues on the path of democratic consolidation and civilisational standards, or risks a descent into authoritarian patterns. The preservation of cultural values, rational dialogue and institutional accountability remains the foundation of long-term stability and social cohesion in Slovenia.
In the run-up to the forthcoming elections, Slovenia’s political arena is starkly divided between two dominant blocs: the centre-left, led by the Freedom Movement (GS/ALDE) of current Prime Minister Robert Golob, and the centre-right, led by the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS/EPP) of Janez Janša. The contest between the two camps remains tight, often pushing smaller parties to the margins, as voters resort to tactical voting in an effort to influence the final outcome.
The Freedom Movement is a liberal party and a member of the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe (ALDE), while the Slovenian Democratic Party is a centre-right, Christian-democratic and conservative party within the European People’s Party (EPP). Certain political aspects, however, point to ideological affinity with the Hungarian party Fidesz led by Viktor Orbán.
Slovenia now faces a choice between liberal and illiberal democracy. The liberal project of the Freedom Movement offers the continuation of an open, European-oriented policy. In contrast, the illiberal alternative, still immature and often controversial in Slovenia’s political landscape, suggests connections with Orbán’s circles, which hinder European integration and cultivate links with Putin’s sphere of influence. Neither approach on its own can fully meet the country’s needs; policy must remain flexible in light of current social, economic and geopolitical challenges. Should Robert Golob form a new government with his Freedom Movement, he would become the first prime minister since Janez Drnovšek to secure a second mandate.
Analysts further caution that Slovenia’s electoral system is outdated and no longer corresponds to the country’s contemporary needs. One proposal under discussion is the introduction of a chancellor-style system modelled on Austria. Proponents argue this would better align with Slovenia’s political culture and facilitate more efficient decision-making, as the current proportional system often hinders development and undermines political stability.
Ljubljana/Brussels, 6 March 2026
[1] IFIMES - International Institute for Middle East and Balkan Studies, based in Ljubljana, Slovenia, has a special consultative status with the United Nations Economic and Social Council ECOSOC/UN in New York since 2018, and it is the publisher of the international scientific journal "European Perspectives." Available at: https://www.europeanperspectives.org/en
