The International Institute for Middle East and Balkan Studies (IFIMES[1]), based in Ljubljana, regularly monitors developments in the Middle East, the Balkans and worldwide. IFIMES exclusively presents an article by Bogoljub J. Karić, a prominent philanthropist, visionary and inspirational figure, in which the author reflects on the global distribution of power and future geopolitical relations. Entitled “The struggle for the 21st century: America, China and the geopolitical fate of Russia”, the article offers new perspectives on international relations and contemporary geopolitical dynamics.
The world today stands at a historic turning point that will, to a large extent, determine the political, economic and security architecture of the 21st century. The past two decades have been characterised by profound transformations of the international system, ranging from the global financial crisis and the technological revolution to energy transitions and geopolitical conflicts that have once again brought the balance between the world’s major powers back to the forefront.
The conflicts currently unfolding – from the war in Ukraine to instability in the Middle East and strategic tensions in the Indo-Pacific region – can no longer be viewed as isolated regional disputes. Rather, they form part of a far broader global transformation in which political alliances, trade flows, energy routes and security strategies are being redefined.
Over the past three decades, China has shown that global influence can be built primarily through economic cooperation, infrastructure and technological development. Instead of pursuing traditional military dominance, the Chinese model of expanding influence relies on investments, trade networks and financial instruments.
A central element of this strategy is the Belt and Road Initiative, which links Asia, Africa and Europe through a vast network of infrastructure projects, energy corridors and logistics hubs. This undertaking is not merely economic in nature but also geopolitical, as it allows Beijing to establish long-term development partnerships and political ties with numerous states.
In this way, China seeks to shape an alternative model of globalisation – one grounded in economic connectivity, infrastructure development and long-term investment, as opposed to military intervention.
The United States remains the central pillar of the existing international system. Its power derives from a combination of military capabilities, technological dominance, an extensive network of political alliances and a financial system in which the US dollar plays a crucial global role.
Against this backdrop, President Donald Trump’s approach can be interpreted as an attempt to recalibrate America’s global strategy. His policy of economic nationalism, the reassessment of international agreements and insistence on new trade rules reflect an effort to adjust the country’s global position to emerging geopolitical realities.
Trump’s strategy places particular emphasis on bilateral relations and economic pragmatism, which in many cases involves redefining relations not only with allies but also with global competitors.
Simultaneously, the war in Ukraine has highlighted the scale of the changes reshaping the contemporary international order. Russia is facing formidable political, economic and strategic challenges, as the protracted conflict depletes its resources and constrains its capacity to exercise broader global influence.
Nevertheless, this does not imply that Russia is losing its geopolitical relevance. On the contrary, it will likely remain one of the key regional actors, particularly across the Eurasian space, although its role in international relations in the coming decades is expected to be redefined.
Its energy resources, military capabilities and strategic geographic position continue to secure Russia an important place in global politics, even as the international system increasingly pivots towards a multipolar model dominated by several major centres of power.
In today’s multipolar world, the European Union may assume a particularly distinctive role. As one of the most significant economic and political projects in modern history, the EU has the potential to act as a key factor of stability, development and political balance.
Yet to preserve its global influence, Europe must find a new strategic impetus and articulate a clearer geopolitical vision. One of the most important steps in this direction is continuing the enlargement process to include the countries of the Western Balkans.
EU enlargement should not be seen solely as a political commitment to the region, but also as a strategic investment in the stability of the European continent. The integration of the Western Balkan states could inject fresh development momentum into the EU, expand its market, strengthen political stability and contribute to its repositioning within contemporary international relations.
A united Europe must remain a symbol of a continent defined by peace, stability and cooperation. Following centuries of wars and conflicts, the European project has demonstrated that it is possible to build a community of states capable of resolving their differences through dialogue, institutions and shared values. Such a model of regional integration can provide inspiration for other parts of the world searching for a sustainable framework for political and economic cooperation.
Within this broader geopolitical landscape, Serbia occupies a special place. Due to its historical experience, geographical location and political tradition, Serbia has served as a bridge between different civilisational and political spheres.
A policy of engagement with multiple global centres of power – Europe, the United States, Russia and China – enables Serbia to pursue a balanced and pragmatic foreign policy. Such an approach can contribute to the stability of the Balkans and strengthen regional cooperation.
The Balkans has historically been a meeting point of civilisations, but also a region marked by numerous conflicts. For this very reason, it is important that in the future the region develops into a space of economic connectivity, infrastructure development and sustained political dialogue.
At the same time, the Middle East remains a region of immense geopolitical significance. Energy resources, transport corridors and political tensions make it a focal point for the global strategies of the major powers.
Within this dynamic, Iran occupies a singular position, as its role in the regional balance of power, energy flows and security affairs may have a substantial impact on global stability.
Control over energy corridors, new logistical routes and digital networks is becoming an increasingly critical element of international competition.
Looking at long-term trends, the world by the mid-21st century will most likely be shaped by the interplay among several major centres of power. The United States and China are set to wield the greatest global influence, while the European Union, Russia and other regional powers will play an important role in maintaining the broader global equilibrium.
In such a world, stability will depend not only on the power of individual states but also on their ability to strike a balance between competition and cooperation.
As I have often observed: “Great powers forge history through their might, but the stability of the world has always been preserved by the balance between them.”
It is precisely in this balance – between the major powers, regional integrations and economic development – that the key to a stable and prosperous 21st century resides.
About the author:
Bogoljub J. Karić, born in 1954 in Peć/Peja, holds a degree in geography from the Faculty of Natural Sciences and Mathematics in Priština. He earned his master's degree in "Organization and Development of Small Business" from the Faculty of Economics in Niš. In 1971, alongside his three brothers and sister, he established the family business "Braća Karić" in Peć. In 1971, alongside his three brothers and sister, he established the family-owned factory "Braća Karić" in Peć. Over nearly half a century, he expanded this business into a large-scale company operating across various sectors globally, including telecommunications, construction, finance, education, media, trade, etc. He serves as a member of the IFIMES Advisory Board, the President of the International Committee "Nikola Tesla," an expert with the UN Sustainable Development Programme, a member of the UN Global Marketplace, and a contributor to the UN "AI for Good" initiative. Karić is recognised as a pioneer and reformer of capitalism in Yugoslavia and Gorbachev's Russia, as well as a visionary, innovator, philanthropist, and architect of the new global economic order.
The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect IFIMES official position.
Ljubljana/Beograd, 14 March 2026
[1] IFIMES - International Institute for Middle East and Balkan Studies, based in Ljubljana, Slovenia, has a special consultative status with the United Nations Economic and Social Council ECOSOC/UN in New York since 2018, and it is the publisher of the international scientific journal "European Perspectives." Available at: https://www.europeanperspectives.org/en
