The International Institute for Middle-East and Balkan Studies (IFIMES)[1], based in Ljubljana, regularly analyses developments in the Middle East, the Balkans and global affairs. In his latest article, “The World at a Turning Point: Elections, Political Instability and the Growing Nuclear Risk,” Dr J. Scott Younger, former International Chancellor of President University in Indonesia, Honorary Research Fellow at the University of Glasgow and a member of the IFIMES Advisory Board, examines a period of significant political change and uncertainty. The article focuses on elections and political developments in the United States, the United Kingdom, Russia and Israel, while highlighting the broader risks associated with political instability, nuclear escalation and growing geopolitical tensions.
We have now entered the last quarter of this year and each of the countries which currently affect the direction of the world are due or have had government elections. In the US the mid-term elections are due shortly and these are likely to realise a significant change. The Republican party, which now holds both the houses, Senate and Representatives, are forecast likely to lose a few seats which will constrain the direction that president Trump would like to take the government, albeit Trump does not always take advice from his party and only governs with what his ideas hold!
In recent discussion on the subject of Artificial Intelligence, the American president implied that safeguards would be provided through having a strong president with a high IQ, i.e. like the present incumbent, and thus there would be no need to be concerned over the ‘dangers’ that AI might indicate.
However, there is growing disquiet among the general populace that the current president is showing signs of very poor judgement in some, perhaps most, of his decision making, which is unchecked by his followers in the administration, who tend to be somewhat sycophantic The president is currently talking at Republican party occasions in support of mid-term election candidates, but the talks sound more like boasting about himself and what a great man that he is! He does not see that this has led to the Republicans position in the polls deteriorating.
Apart from domestic issues, such as the price of fuel rising because of the Iran war, which he started without obtaining the opinion first of the Senate, never mind the general population, but largely from the urging of the Israeli PM. A key point of disquiet is the insistence that Iran must not continue to produce any nuclear weapons.
Trump has threatened to annihilate Iran, as Persia one of the oldest civilisations in the world, repeating the threat at the annual big meeting of the UN. Not surprisingly it raised a few eyebrows. However, he added that this would wait until the US November miterm elections were successfully over in his favour.
Among those most concerned in the US about how the president acts is Dr Henry Abraham, emeritus professor of psychiatry at Tufts University School of Medicine, who is convinced that there is a gradual declining trend in the current president’s mental state. He is viewed as an increasingly unstable person but with absolute presidential control over the US nuclear arsenal. The opinion is shared by a very large number of members of scientists across the world, in particular through the body called the International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War. Efforts are being made in order to limit the ability of a president to have the power to press the button and so avoid the disaster that triggering a nuclear event would have. Democrats in Congress have put forward bills for new checks and balances.
It is not unusual to lose mental capability as one ages, e.g. over 80 years, and perhaps the US should limit the age at which a person is allowed to stand for the ultimate office, say 75 or younger.
As implied above, it is only a matter of days before it is time for the mid-term elections, and the prognosis is that the Republicans will lose some seats and thereby control of the Senate and also the House of Representatives. No doubt this is fake news! Whatever, the next two years could be difficult and some believe will lead to an escalation of hostilities. So we shall know soon enough.
While this has been happening in America, somewhat to people’s surprise in the UK the Labour party government changed its prime minister, the incumbent having lost the backing of much of the party.
Also in the past few days, the Russian government has held its due elections for the Dumas. Unsurprisingly, it was ‘arranged’ so that President Putin continued in office. Since then, he has let the west know that he is untroubled by the thought of using nuclear weapons if he deems the west to have threatened Russia. In the meantime, Russia has increased its aerial bombing of the Ukrainian capital, Kiev, and other cities. This led to a surprise, unscheduled visit from the German Chancellor to Kiev to bolster European support for Ukraine and remind Putin that the west is keenly watching what he does.
To complete the ‘period of elections’, Israel is also shortly due to hold its 4-yearly cycle of parliamentary elections. With the apparent wide body of opinion held by the population there is doubt about the election outcome. It is far from sure that the current government, with its far-right tendencies, will be returned and the PM, Benjamin Netanyahu could be ousted or some of his power reduced. He would be therefore open to face significant fraud charges which he has so far managed to keep at bay. There is pressure on the Israeli government, whatever its direction, to adopt the 2-state solution, as laid out in the late 1940s and which the far right is opposing. This has to be resolved.
Come 2027, the political climate is likely to look different to that of today. The fear that writers have is that the Middle East fighting could escalate and that someone inadvertently or otherwise lets the nuclear element ‘out of the bag’.
About the author:
Dr. J. Scott Younger, OBE, is a professional civil engineer with more than four decades of international experience, including 42 years working across the Far East. He has undertaken assignments in ten countries for the World Bank (WB), the Asian Development Bank (ADB), and the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP).
He has published extensively and has served as a columnist for Forbes Indonesia and GlobeAsia. He has also served on the boards of the British and European Chambers of Commerce and was Vice Chair of the International Business Chamber for 17 years.
His professional expertise focuses on infrastructure and sustainable development, complemented by a longstanding interest in international affairs. He previously served as International Chancellor of President University, Indonesia, and is an Honorary Research Fellow at the University of Glasgow. He is also a member of the IFIMES Advisory Board.
Dr. Younger lived and worked in Thailand from 1978 to 1983 and undertook project-related visits to Myanmar (Burma), Bangladesh, and Nepal.
His latest book, Sustainable Development: Challenges and Assessment in Civil Engineering, is now available for purchase directly from the publisher or through Amazon.
The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect IFIMES official position.
Ljubljana/Glasgow, 11 October 2026
[1] IFIMES - International Institute for Middle East and Balkan Studies, based in Ljubljana, Slovenia, has a special consultative status with the United Nations Economic and Social Council ECOSOC/UN in New York since 2018, and it is the publisher of the international scientific journal "European Perspectives.", link: https://www.europeanperspectives.org/en
