The International Institute for Middle East and Balkan Studies (IFIMES)[1] based in Ljubljana, Slovenia, regularly conducts analyses of events spanning the Middle East, the Balkans, and global affairs. IFIMES has analysed recent developments in the Republic of Serbia. From the analysis “Serbia 2025: How can Serbia overcome the current situation?”, we present the most relevant and intriguing excerpts.
The Republic of Serbia is undergoing a turbulent phase in its socio-political development. The collapse of the canopy at the Novi Sad railway station on 1 November 2024 marked the beginning of a wave of student protests and the blockade of higher education institutions across the country. Classes have been suspended, effectively leading to a complete shutdown of universities. A distinctive feature of these protests is the absence of recognisable student leaders; instead, everything unfolds with a certain degree of social mimicry, suggesting the presence of a leadership structure remotely coordinating the movement. This has sparked public curiosity about who is truly behind the protests. Students have justified their anonymity by citing fears of potential government reprisals. Meanwhile, the Serbian public has grown increasingly perplexed, with some even expressing doubt about the true forces driving the protests.
Serbian society has undergone numerous transitional phases—from war and sanctions, to regime change and efforts toward deeper democratisation. Dialogue serves as a critical instrument for achieving social cohesion, overcoming polarisation, and building sustainable democratic institutions. Today, Serbia faces profound political divisions, erosion of trust in institutions, tensions related to identity, regional issues, and European integration. What the country urgently needs is a comprehensive social dialogue and national agreement.
President of Serbia Aleksandar Vučić (SNS) has acknowledged the students’ message and the need for change, and recently invited “all those who think differently” to engage in dialogue at all levels, negotiate and identify common ground wherever possible.[2]
Analysts believe that, despite tensions, personal animosities, and polarisation, establishing dialogue remains essential to achieving domestic consensus on key issues affecting the nation's future and overcoming the current situation. Political matters should be addressed elsewhere, while universities and faculties must remain spaces for teaching and learning. Under the current circumstances, online classes appear to be the most practical solution wherever feasible.
Serbia finds itself in a complex and potentially volatile position. This is a classic case of the “geopolitical chessboard” where major powers vie for influence, while local actors—both government and opposition—leverage foreign policy issues to bolster their domestic legitimacy. The danger lies in the possibility of a misstep that could lead to escalation—whether over Kosovo, Bosnia and Herzegovina, or Serbia’s international (re)positioning. The groundwork for a so-called "colour revolution" was laid much earlier, coinciding with Serbia’s economic growth and the positioning of so-called “sleepers” ready to be activated when needed. The country’s growing economic strength appears to be unwelcome in certain circles—both in the West and the East.
Serbia is under pressure on several fronts: ● Western pressure over Kosovo ● Geopolitical tug-of-war between East and West ● Bosnia and Herzegovina and Republika Srpska ● Military exercises, arms buildup, and intelligence operations ● Internal vulnerabilities (student protests).
Analysts warn of the growing presence of foreign intelligence agencies in Serbia—both Russian and Western—aimed at influencing public opinion and political decision-making. The involvement of certain foreign intelligence agencies has also been identified in the organisation of student protests. Although Serbia suffered a breach of its security, intelligence, and defence systems several years ago, it has since managed to consolidate its services. However, new challenges have since emerged that require new responses. Serbia’s future depends on seizing the moment by forging lasting partnerships with neighbouring countries and deepening strategic investments in regional ties—laying the groundwork for long-term progress.
Credit rating, foreign direct investment (FDI), and the upcoming EXPO 2027 form the core pillars of the Serbian government’s economic narrative.
The country has achieved notable progress in macroeconomic stability, albeit amid ongoing concerns about political risks, institutional independence, and the unpredictability of its foreign policy. Fiscal discipline has improved, foreign currency reserves are stable, and inflation is under control, but reforms in tax administration and public finances remain necessary. Improving public administration and the judiciary, reducing reliance on a handful of major investors, and boosting domestic economic development and productivity are all critical next steps.
Serbia attracts more foreign direct investment than any other country in the Western Balkans, drawing around six billion euros annually. Most investments come from EU member states, China, the UAE, and Turkey. This inflow has contributed to job creation, technology transfers, and Serbia’s positioning as a regional hub.
There is a need to review the subsidy system, systematically move away from a low-cost economic model, improve environmental standards, more effectively integrate foreign investors with the domestic economy, and enhance the development and profitability of the private sector. With the introduction of SEPA payment orders, Serbia is expected to generate savings of half a billion euros over the next decade. Gold reserves currently stand at nearly 50 tonnes, representing a major success for Serbia.
The specialised international exhibition EXPO 2027 is set to be the largest economic event in Serbia’s modern history, with participation from over 140 countries already confirmed. It represents a development opportunity not only for Serbia but for the wider region as well. Planned investments amount to 12 billion euros. The official theme of EXPO 2027 is “Play for Humanity: Sport and Music for All.”
EXPO 2027 is expected to provide a major boost to the construction sector, raise the international profile of Belgrade, Serbia, and the region on the global stage, and drive significant infrastructure improvements, including roads, railways, hotels, and the metro system.
Serbia’s Minister of Finance, Siniša Mali, stated: “EXPO 2027 is our greatest development opportunity ever. We expect over 3 to 4 million visitors. In Surčin, we are building an entirely new small city. Once everything is completed—and it will be completed on time and according to plan—new prospects for growth and development will open up for us starting in 2027. From 2028 onward, we will move forward with a new investment plan.”
Serbia needs to continue with institutional reforms, ensure transparent management of public funds, and implement a long-term development strategy based on knowledge and innovation, which will enhance the country’s visibility and attractiveness in the broader international arena.
The United Arab Emirates’ investments in Serbia stand as a strong sign of trust in the stability and growth potential of countries like Serbia. Through strategic investments, the UAE contributes to accelerated economic growth and the strengthening of regional cooperation.
Under the leadership of President Aleksandar Vučić, Serbia stands out as a leading example of a successful model for attracting foreign direct investment that drives economic transformation. Since Vučić assumed the role of Prime Minister in 2014, his decisive, visionary, and responsible leadership has helped create a stable, transparent, and business-friendly environment that inspires confidence among international partners.
It is worth highlighting the deep mutual respect and friendship between President Vučić and Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, President of the UAE, which further reinforces bilateral relations and creates new opportunities for investment and cooperation. Aleksandar Vučić enjoys recognition and respect worldwide, which strengthens Serbia’s position as a trusted partner in global economic affairs.
Serbia has emerged as an attractive investment destination in the region, as evidenced by growing investments from the UAE and other global partners. This success clearly demonstrates the importance of a clear vision, responsible governance, and synergy between domestic policies and international investments in achieving sustainable economic development and stability.
Serbia has the potential to move beyond the current situation by fostering structured dialogue involving key actors in society and the state. To successfully emerge from this period, Serbia must focus on: ● restoring institutions and the rule of law (judicial reform, strengthening of independent bodies, professionalising public administration) ● advancing sustainable economic models ● strengthening foreign policy positioning ● resolving outstanding issues on a lasting basis ● democratising the media landscape ● promoting culture, education, and social values.
The Government of Serbia must remain firmly on the reform path while building consensus around a national development strategy, with the active participation of experts, academia, and civil society in the reform process. Serbia needs to establish internal stability, institutional integrity, and an economic model based on knowledge and research. Above all, this implies a deep and fundamental transformation of the system.
Commenting on the timing of the next parliamentary elections, President Aleksandar Vučić stated: “They [the protesters] asked when the elections would be held. The elections will take place either at the end of next year or at the beginning of 2027. That’s it. We had elections just a year ago, and now we are preparing for the Specialised Expo 2027.”
Analysts argue that Serbia must step up its efforts toward EU membership, with the opening of Cluster III in the accession negotiations expected to support that process. Serbia has all the potential to remain the driving force of European integration in the Western Balkans and to conclude accession negotiations with the EU in 2027—a year that represents a turning point in Serbia’s modern socio-political and economic development. Therefore, intensified support is needed to facilitate Serbia’s EU accession within the shortest possible timeframe, provided all EU requirements and standards are met.
Ljubljana/Washington/Bruxelles/Belgrade, 19 June 2025
[1] IFIMES - International Institute for Middle East and Balkan Studies, based in Ljubljana, Slovenia, has a special consultative status with the United Nations Economic and Social Council ECOSOC/UN in New York since 2018, and it is the publisher of the international scientific journal "European Perspectives." Available at: https://www.europeanperspectives.org/en
[2] N1 TV: Vučić uz trešnje i jagode pozvao na dijalog „sve one koji drugačije misle“(Vučić invites “all those who think differently” to dialogue over cherries and strawberries). Available at: https://n1info.rs/vesti/vucic-uz-tresnje-i-jagode-pozvao-na-dijalog-sve-one-koji-drugacije-misle/
