The International Institute for Middle East and Balkan Studies (IFIMES)[1], based in Ljubljana, regularly monitors political and geopolitical developments in the Middle East, the Balkans and worldwide. The upcoming parliamentary elections in Slovenia, scheduled for 22 March 2026, carry significance that extends beyond domestic politics, posing potential implications for regional stability, the economy and the European strategic framework. IFIMES points to the complex electoral environment, marked by political polarisation and possible external influences, including the activities of Milorad Dodik and the involvement of suspicious capital. These circumstances suggest vulnerabilities in the electoral process and the intensifying geopolitical interests in the region. This analysis specifically examines the role of foreign factors in the formation of the new Slovenian government, with the key findings presented in the study: “Parliamentary elections in Slovenia 2026: Foreign influences and internal political struggle”. The following are the main highlights from this comprehensive research.
The tenth parliamentary elections since Slovenia’s independence will be held on 22 March 2026 under the proportional electoral system. The country is divided into eight electoral units, each comprising eleven electoral districts. A total of 1,698,352 registered voters are eligible to participate, with eleven parliamentary seats allocated in each electoral unit. The parliament comprises a total of 90 deputies, including one representative each of the Italian and Hungarian national communities, while the electoral threshold is set at 4%.
The International Institute for Middle East and Balkan Studies (IFIMES) has previously published a study titled: “Parliamentary elections 2026: The Slovenian choice: Liberal or illiberal democracy”, available at: https://www.ifimes.org/en/researches/parliamentary-elections-2026-the-slovenian-choice-liberal-or-illiberal-democracy/5793 (6 March 2026).
The upcoming parliamentary elections in Slovenia are unfolding amid an extremely tense and gruelling contest between two dominant political blocs: the centre-left, led by the Freedom Movement (GS) of Prime Minister Robert Golob, and the centre-right, headed by Janez Janša and the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS).
The centre-left bloc, led by Golob, is focused on strengthening the welfare state, improving public services and preserving citizens’ living standards. Its policy agenda emphasises the strategic alignment of national and European interests, the importance of a pro-European course and the need to preserve Europe’s strategic autonomy in the economic, technological and defence domains, with particular emphasis on industry, energy, technology, defence and space infrastructure. On the other hand, the centre-right bloc led by Janša advocates broader privatisation, greater empowerment of large capital, a scaling back of public services, and a more confrontational political discourse.
Although this is one of the most intense and controversial election campaigns in the history of independent Slovenia, the final outcome will primarily depend on voters’ trust in politics and institutions. Citizens are expected to weigh carefully which side can ensure stability and offer concrete solutions to everyday challenges – from affordable housing to decent salaries and pensions – and which side seeks to mobilise voters through fear, conflicts and social divisions.
The emergence of so-called strategic voting[2] is expected, whereby voters, in an atmosphere of tension and uncertainty, may rally behind the candidate most capable of securing victory and forming the next government, while many smaller political parties are likely to fall short of the 4% electoral threshold.
Analysts are paying particular attention to the potential for foreign interference and the presence of capital of questionable origin that may influence the choice of the future prime minister. Milorad Dodik[3] (SNSD) has issued a public appeal to the Serbian community in Slovenia to back Janez Janša and punish the incumbent administration—a move widely viewed as a response to the government's decision to bar him from entering the country. Estimates suggest that approximately three billion euros linked to Dodik’s oligarchy are currently circulating in Slovenia, raising questions about the extent to which the political-intelligence and criminal underworld might sway the electoral outcome and whether the new government will reflect the will of citizens or foreign interests. Against this backdrop, Dodik is increasingly seen as an agent of Vladimir Putin’s regional agenda.
While the previous IFIMES research addressed the civilisational and political aspects of the Slovenian elections, the new study focuses specifically on the economic and regional dimensions, potential threats to national security, the implications for the Western Balkans and the wider European community, as well as the significance of high voter turnout, which may ultimately determine the final winner.
Slovenia is currently undergoing a period of intensive economic transition and adjustment to global changes, with the forthcoming parliamentary elections set to directly define key economic trends and reforms: ● Green and digital transformation: The government will face an urgent need to accelerate the implementation of energy transition policies, climate strategies and the digitalisation of both public and private services ● Attracting foreign investment: A stable parliamentary majority and a clearly articulated political vision are essential for sustaining the confidence of EU investors, while also strengthening openness towards Eastern markets, particularly through strategic cooperation with countries of Central and (South)Eastern Europe ● Macroeconomic resilience: The new (or returning) government must respond to the challenges of reducing public debt, maintaining fiscal discipline and stimulating employment amid global economic turbulence.
The International Institute IFIMES emphasises that the effective implementation of these economic policies will become a central source of political legitimacy, with a decisive impact on government stability and voter confidence.
Slovenia represents a geopolitical bridge between the West and the East and is a key strategic actor in the Western Balkans. Its domestic stability and foreign policy orientation directly shape regional dynamics: ● Stability of the Western Balkans: Decisions made by Slovenian voters send clear signals to international partners about the credibility of EU integration and may serve as an example of democratic consolidation and institutional resilience ● Economy and trade: As a member of the EU and the Schengen Area, Slovenia has the potential to promote trade and transport routes linking the Balkans with Central Europe, as well as with the markets of Eastern Europe and beyond ● Diplomatic role: A stable government could act as a mediator in regional matters, including infrastructure projects, energy connectivity and the strengthening of cooperation among the countries of the region.
Through his engagement in the European Council, Prime Minister Robert Golob has distinguished himself as Slovenia’s most steadfast proponent of accelerated EU accession for Western Balkan states.
The International Institute IFIMES assesses that Slovenia can play a key strategic role in fostering regional economic and political dialogue, particularly if the government continues its policy of balancing European integration with openness towards markets in the East and South-East.
Drawing on the analysis of political and economic factors, IFIMES outlines three possible scenarios for Slovenia’s future: 1.Consolidation of democracy and economic growth ● The new (or returning) government pursues institutional reforms and economic policies anchored in stability, transparency and regional cooperation ● Slovenia reinforces its position in the EU and across the Western Balkans, attracting investment and emerging as a frontrunner in the green and digital transformation 2. Political polarisation and economic stagnation ● The elections result in a narrow victory or a fragile coalition, causing delayed reforms and eroding investor confidence ● Slovenia becomes increasingly vulnerable to regional foreign policy turbulence, while internal polarisation weakens the country’s role in the Western Balkans 3. Authoritarian turn and regional isolation ● This scenario may undermine democracy and legal certainty, limit economic and diplomatic opportunities and negatively affect Slovenia’s export-oriented economy ● A decline in regional cooperation would further hinder foreign policy initiatives, exposing them to substantial constraints.
IFIMES assessment: The most likely scenario is a combination of the first two, whereby the government will seek institutional consolidation and the implementation of economic reforms, while continually navigating the balance of political interests and regional challenges.
An analysis of political party positions in Slovenia indicates that, despite pronounced political polarisation, areas of broad consensus still exist. One of the few strategic issues on which almost all parties agree is nuclear energy, which is widely regarded as a cornerstone of the country’s long-term energy security. The only exception is the Left (Levica), which has not clearly defined its stance on this matter.
A notable degree of consensus also prevails regarding democratic rules. Most parties maintain that referendums in Slovenia are not overused and do not require additional restrictions. There is also broad support for the introduction of preferential voting in parliamentary elections, enabling voters to exert greater influence over the selection of their representatives.
By contrast, the political landscape remains deeply divided on economic and tax-related issues. Centre-right parties (SDS, NSi, Demokrats and Resni.ca) advocate reducing labour taxes, while parties of the left and liberal spectrum (Freedom Movement, Social Democrats and, to some extent, the Left) caution that such measures could jeopardise the sustainability of public finances and social welfare systems.
The most acute ideological differences emerge regarding social and migration policy. Centre-right parties uphold the traditional family model and favour more restrictive migration policies, while liberal and left-leaning parties promote broader rights for same-sex couples and a more inclusive approach to migration.
Overall, the analysis shows that the Slovenian political landscape remains deeply divided primarily along value-based and economic lines, while a relatively broad consensus exists on certain strategic priorities, including energy, digitalisation and the development of artificial intelligence.
The release of leaked audio and video recordings, the orchestrated production of scandals and coordinated attacks on Slovenia’s security and intelligence system on the eve of the elections pose a serious threat to the integrity of the electoral process and national security. These incidents point to attempts at foreign interference in Slovenia’s domestic affairs, aimed at destabilising the country and manipulating public opinion, underscoring the need for the urgent protection of critical state infrastructure and full transparency in the electoral process.
Slovenia’s forthcoming parliamentary elections, set for 22 March 2026, extend far beyond domestic concerns, carrying far-reaching implications for the economy, the Western Balkans and regional stability. IFIMES highlights in particular:
On 11 September 2025, the Government of the Republic of Slovenia banned Milorad Dodik (SNSD) from entering the country due to his political and economic links to the incitement of conflict and controversial activities in the region, as well as threats to national security and compliance with EU standards. In response, Dodik called on the Serbian community in Slovenia to support Janez Janša in the parliamentary elections, seeking to sway the electoral process and retaliate for the entry ban. This move further strengthens his strategic alignment with right-wing and sovereigntist forces in the region. His connections with Janša (SDS), Viktor Orbán (Fidesz) and Vladimir Putin, compounded by the potential leverage of Dodik’s capital, pose a serious challenge to the autonomy of Slovenian elections and the security of the state.
It is estimated that approximately €2.5 billion of public funds disappear annually in Bosnia and Herzegovina, while around €3 billion in capital linked to Dodik is actively circulating in Slovenia. In this context, Dodik —acting in coordination with Viktor Orbán, Russian interests and a major intelligence power—is operating against the government of Robert Golob, posing a serious challenge to political and economic stability as well as national security.
This constitutes the most extensive security and intelligence operation targeting Slovenia and seeking to undermine its democratically elected government, with potentially long-term repercussions. The pattern itself closely resembles the affair that emerged in the final days of the election campaign four years ago.
Slovenia’s role as an “oasis of normality” in the region stands out as crucial for preserving institutional resilience and stability, particularly amid external political and economic pressures. Parliamentary elections in Slovenia and Hungary (12 April 2026) represent a critical juncture within the EU, with particular implications for the Western Balkans. The cases of Slovenia and Hungary are not two separate stories, but rather key focal points in the struggle against the rise of right-wing populism in Central Europe. A victory for pro-European forces in both countries would send a strong signal of EU stability and unity.
The International Institute IFIMES underscores that Slovenia must preserve its status as an “oasis of normality” in a turbulent environment, continue on the path of economic prosperity, safeguard its civilisational course and strengthen its regional influence, making the forthcoming elections decisive not only for Slovenia, but also for the stability of the Western Balkans and the wider European context.
Ljubljana/Brussels/Washington, 17 March 2026
[1] IFIMES - International Institute for Middle East and Balkan Studies, based in Ljubljana, Slovenia, has a special consultative status with the United Nations Economic and Social Council ECOSOC/UN in New York since 2018, and it is the publisher of the international scientific journal "European Perspectives." Available at: https://www.europeanperspectives.org/en
[2] Strategic voting occurs when voters do not support their originally preferred candidate or party, but instead choose the candidate or party they believe has the best chance of winning or preventing the victory of the candidate who is least acceptable to them.
[3] RTV: Dodik: I call on our people in Slovenia to vote for Janša and punish the current government. Available at: https://rtv.rs/sr_lat/region/dodik-pozivam-nas-narod-u-sloveniji-da-glasaju-za-jansu-i-tako-kazne-aktuelnu-vladu_1656377.html
