The International Institute for Middle-East and Balkan Studies (IFIMES)[1], headquartered in Ljubljana, Slovenia, is well known for its in-depth analyses of global affairs, with a particular emphasis on the Middle East, the Balkans, and other key regions around the world. Among its distinguished contributors is Ebrahim Rezaei Rad, a PhD candidate in International Relations and University lecturer. In his article titled “Diversifying Europe's Gas Supply: The Geopolitical Stakes of the Trans-Caspian Pipeline,” Rezaei Rad discusses Trans-Caspian Pipeline project and its far-reaching implications for the balance of power in Eurasia and the global energy security landscape.
Source: https://www.iene.eu/is-the-trans-caspian-gas-pipeline-really-important-for-europe-p4022.html.
In the contemporary era, energy has become one of the primary drivers shaping international politics and power relations among nations. The Eurasian region, with its vast reserves of natural gas in Central Asia and Europe's growing demand for secure energy supplies, has transformed into a significant geopolitical battleground. As numerous authors have already stated in their writings on the topic for the International Institute IFIMES, energy transit projects such as pipelines hold a central strategic position. Among these, the Trans-Caspian Pipeline project stands out as a strategic initiative aiming to meet this demand and create a new route for transferring energy from Turkmenistan to Europe.
The Trans-Caspian Pipeline is – as the numerous IFIMES authors have earlier noted, and professor Anis H. Bajrektarevic elaborated in his 2020 book ‘Caspian’ – a proposed project designed to transport natural gas from Turkmenistan, across the Caspian Sea seabed, to Azerbaijan, and from there to European markets. This pipeline is expected to span approximately 300 kilometers, originating from the Turkmenbashi field on the eastern shores of the Caspian Sea. After crossing the seabed, it would connect to Azerbaijan’s gas transmission network and deliver gas to Europe via existing pipelines such as the Trans-Anatolian Pipeline (TANAP) and the Trans-Adriatic Pipeline (TAP). This route serves as an alternative to transporting gas through Russian territory and, if implemented, could significantly alter the balance of energy power in the region.
The Trans-Caspian project is part of a broader initiative known as the Southern Gas Corridor, one of the most important global energy projects today. It was designed to transport natural gas from the Caspian Sea to the European continent. The importance of this corridor has grown notably since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine and Europe’s subsequent efforts to diversify its energy import routes.
The Southern Gas Corridor consists of three major segments:
The total length of this corridor exceeds 3,500 kilometers, with an initial capacity to transport approximately 60 billion cubic meters of gas per year expandable to 120 billion cubic meters in the future.
Europe has long been significantly dependent on gas imports from Russia. Since the start of Ukraine’s conflict in 2022, this dependence is a major concern for European countries. Economic sanctions and reduced Russian gas exports prompted the European Union to seek alternative, more secure energy sources.
In this context, the Trans-Caspian Pipeline could serve as a strategic solution to reduce Europe’s reliance on Russian gas and diversify its energy sources. Establishing a new energy corridor especially post-Ukraine war has become more critical than ever. Although such action should have been initiated after the 2009 Russian gas crisis, factors such as lower costs and reliance on legacy infrastructure diverted Europe's attention. From an economic perspective, accessing Turkmenistan’s gas reserves the fourth largest in the world could help stabilize gas prices in Europe and ease the financial burden caused by the energy crisis. While Europe has attempted to offset the gas shortfall through LNG imports and renewable energy, the pipeline remains a potentially vital asset.
The successful implementation of the Trans-Caspian pipeline could offer significant strategic benefits, including:
Challenges and Obstacles
The Trans-Caspian pipeline faces numerous obstacles. Key challenges include:
The Role of International Actors
Scenario 1: Full Success Realization of a Central Asia Europe Energy Corridor
In this scenario, all political, legal, and economic challenges are resolved, and the project is implemented with the support of key countries and international institutions.
Key Success Factors:
Regional and Global Impacts:
Europe gains access to diversified and reliable energy resources. Turkmenistan reduces its reliance on China and Iran, gaining greater economic independence. Turkey becomes a critical intersection for Eurasian energy transit.
Scenario 2: Limited Success Partial Implementation with Lower Capacity
In this scenario, the pipeline is constructed but not at full capacity or strategic scope. Environmental concerns, Russian pressure, and weak investment limit its scale.
Features:
Consequences
Turkmenistan gains a limited foothold in the European market. The project’s strategic impact on Russian influence is modest. Global investors remain cautious, and future development depends on further geopolitical shifts.
Scenario 3: Failure Project halted Due to Political and Economic Obstacles
This outcome results from failed negotiations, regional resistance, or lack of economic viability.
Potential Reasons for Failure:
Turkmenistan remains dependent on gas exports to China and Iran. Turkey’s role as an energy corridor weakens. Russia maintains a significant share in the European gas market. Europe remains reliant on LNG imports, complicating diversification efforts.
Scenario 4: Parallel and Multilateral Alternatives
If the Trans-Caspian project is delayed or fails, regional and global actors may pursue alternative options to achieve similar objectives.
Main Alternatives
As the numerous previous IFIMES studies found out, very future of the Trans-Caspian Pipeline depends on a complex interplay of international, regional, economic, and environmental factors. While Europe’s drive for energy decoupling pulls the project forward, geopolitical pressure from inner Eurasia actors like Russia and Iran; peripheral like China, India, GCC or the EU; or the external like EFTA, USA, and the like will remain an oscillatory challenge. Whether this complex undertaking succeeds, fails, or is delayed, the pipeline will have far-reaching implications for the balance of power in Eurasia and the global energy security landscape. More than ever, the future of energy hinges on politico-military projections, diplomacy, socio-economics, and technological innovation.
The following model has been developed to better assess the implications of the operationalization of the Trans-Caspian Pipeline on European energy security and the Southern Gas Corridor.
Source: Drawn by authors
About the author:
Ebrahim Rezaei Rad is a PhD candidate in International Relations and University lecturer. His primary area of research expertise lies in energy studies, energy security, and geopolitics. He has authored several scholarly articles in these fields and has presented his work at international conferences focused on energy and geopolitical issues. Additionally, he has co-authored several books on related topics in collaboration with other researchers.
The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect IFIMES official position.
Ljubljana, 11 June 2025
[1] IFIMES - International Institute for Middle East and Balkan Studies, based in Ljubljana, Slovenia, has a special consultative status with the United Nations Economic and Social Council ECOSOC/UN in New York since 2018, and it is the publisher of the international scientific journal "European Perspectives."
