The International Institute for Middle East and Balkan Studies (IFIMES)[1], based in Ljubljana, regularly monitors European integration processes and the evolving relationship between the European Union and the Western Balkans. IFIMES regards the forthcoming EU–Western Balkans summit, scheduled to take place on 5 June in Tivat, Montenegro, as one of the decade’s most significant political events for the future of the European continent. The comprehensive analysis “Tivat 2026: the EU faced with a choice between phased integration of the Western Balkans and a strategic blockade of enlargement amid global geopolitical competition” identifies the most important and relevant segments that point to key trends, challenges and potential trajectories for the European integration process.
IFIMES regards the forthcoming EU–Western Balkans summit, scheduled to take place on 5 June in Tivat, Montenegro, as one of the most significant political junctures of the past decade for the future of the European continent, particularly in the context of the European Union’s enlargement to the Western Balkans.
The summit comes at a time when EU enlargement is caught between two opposing trends: institutional fatigue and internal divisions within the Union on the one hand, and an increasingly pressing geopolitical need to stabilise Eastern Europe and the Western Balkans on the other.
European political and diplomatic circles are increasingly considering a model under which the Western Balkan states could join the European Union without full veto rights during the initial or transitional stage of membership.
This model, now often referred to as “phased integration” or “limited sovereignty in decision-making”, is an attempt to overcome decades of deadlock in enlargement, which stems from institutional consensus as the European Union’s fundamental decision-making mechanism.
In this context, the initiative politically articulated by Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama and Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić, which proposes accelerated accession combined with a redefinition of voting rights in EU institutions, is gaining traction as a possible compromise between the imperative of enlargement and the need to preserve the Union’s ability to function.
In a joint opinion piece published in Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung[2], Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama and Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić called for an accelerated path to European Union accession through phased integration, including the waiver of veto rights during the initial stage of membership.
They presented this model as a “realistic path to the European Union”, based on gradual integration into the single market and the Schengen area, with the aim of strengthening stability and speeding up enlargement without further burdening the Union’s institutional decision-making architecture.
Although unconventional, this approach reflects the reality in which the European Union faces the question of how to enlarge without paralysing its own institutions.
One of the central elements of the current debate on European Union enlargement is the relationship between the integration processes of Ukraine and the Western Balkans, which is increasingly being framed as a competition of priorities within the Union’s agenda itself.
In her public remarks, European Commissioner for Enlargement Marta Kos has stressed the need to accelerate reforms and apply a differentiated approach to candidate countries. Within some European institutions, there is also a growing perception that, due to the circumstances of war, Ukraine has built stronger reform momentum than some Western Balkan countries.
In the Western Balkans, however, this narrative creates a sense of political marginalisation and further erodes the credibility of the European Union’s enlargement policy.
At the same time, some European political actors, including Hungarian Prime Minister Péter Magyar, are advocating faster and more strategically focused enlargement of the European Union, warning that bureaucratic inertia in Brussels could weaken the EU’s political influence in its immediate neighbourhood. Against this background, the integration of the Western Balkan states into the European Union is assuming greater priority.
As one of the European Union’s key member states, Germany has in recent months stepped up its rhetoric on the need for “credible EU enlargement”. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has underlined that the European perspective of the Western Balkans remains a strategic priority, contingent upon consistent progress in reforms, the rule of law and stronger institutional stability in the candidate countries.
The enlargement process has been under way for some time, fuelling growing frustration both among candidate countries and within the European Union’s own member states. In a letter[3] to António Costa, President of the European Council, Nikos Christodoulides, Cypriot President, and Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, Chancellor Merz underlines that European Union enlargement has become a geopolitical necessity.
To speed up integration of the Western Balkans and Moldova, Merz proposes a model featuring privileged access to the single market, observer status in EU institutions and gradual inclusion in decision-making processes. At the same time, he calls for the opening of all negotiating chapters for Ukraine, while proposing that it be more firmly anchored institutionally to the European Union through a form of “associate membership” even before formal accession. Within this framework, he also advocates greater Ukrainian participation in EU institutions and in the common foreign and security policy, along with the gradual alignment of its national legislation with the European Union acquis.
This approach reflects the complex dilemma confronting the European Union: how to preserve its geopolitical relevance and capacity to stabilise its neighbourhood while maintaining internal cohesion and functionality within an already enlarged and increasingly complex institutional decision-making system.
Seen in this light, the concept of phased membership without veto rights may be interpreted as a potential compromise model between the imperative of political enlargement and the requirement to preserve the European Union's institutional sustainability.
The Western Balkans remains an arena of intense geopolitical competition. The Russian Federation and China continue to expand their political, energy and infrastructure influence in the region, exploiting institutional weaknesses and the slow pace of European integration.
By contrast, the United States has become more openly supportive of the accelerated integration of the Western Balkans and Eastern Europe into the Euro-Atlantic framework, viewing the stabilisation of the region as an integral part of a broader European and transatlantic security strategy.
Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić’s broader public messaging should also be understood in this context, including his letter[4] to the President of the United States Donald Trump, made public through the US media outlet Fox News. The letter underscores the necessity of balancing between global centres of power while preserving regional stability. It points to the critical stance taken by part of the European political establishment towards the “America First” policy and the growing distance from the United States. The text argues that such trends could weaken transatlantic relations and interprets Europe’s concept of “strategic autonomy” as a form of gradual decoupling from Washington.
Furthermore, the text notes that Serbia has developed a distinctly positive attitude towards the United States and Donald Trump, despite historical traumas, and that Belgrade sees its future as a bridge between Europe and America through stronger economic partnership, attracting investment and strategic cooperation based on shared interests and the preservation of regional stability.
This multipolar competition further amplifies the strategic significance of the Tivat summit, elevating it beyond the regional framework and positioning it within the wider geopolitical architecture of the European continent.
A core issue concerning the future of the European Union relates to the decision-making mechanism rooted in consensus and the right of veto.
A growing number of analysts warn that the right of veto in an enlarged European Union could become a structural obstacle to effective governance and decision-making. Consequently, various models are being considered that would grant new members from the Western Balkans limited decision-making powers during the initial stage of their membership.
Although politically sensitive and controversial, this approach is emerging as one of the few realistic compromises between the imperative of enlargement and the need to preserve the European Union’s institutional stability and functionality.
EU member states from the region carry particular weight in the Western Balkans’ European integration, especially Slovenia.
IFIMES considers that new Slovenian Prime Minister Janez Janša could play a significant role in framing European policy towards the Western Balkans, provided he adopts a clear and proactive stance in support of accelerated EU enlargement and the Rama–Vučić initiative.
As a country with a profound understanding of regional dynamics and the historical processes that have shaped the Balkans, Slovenia could serve as a vital bridge between the institutions in Brussels and the political and social realities of Southeast Europe.
The EU–Western Balkans summit in Tivat is far more than a conventional diplomatic gathering; it can be seen as a test of the European Union’s capacity to redefine its strategic enlargement framework amid rapid global geopolitical changes.
IFIMES maintains that the European Union faces a stark choice: either to develop a flexible and functional integration model to facilitate the swifter inclusion of the Western Balkans through tailored institutional arrangements, or to allow the region to remain in a protracted zone of uncertainty, exposed to intensified influence of the Russian Federation, China and other global actors.
Seen in this light, the Rama–Vučić initiative, which is gaining support from some European political actors, including advocates of accelerated enlargement, represents one possible trajectory for the evolution of the European integration project.
Should the European Union fail to strike a balance between institutional efficiency and geopolitical responsibility, there is a real risk that the Western Balkans will remain permanently confined to the status of a “strategic space of delayed integration”.
The Tivat summit therefore carries exceptional strategic weight as it marks the convergence of three critical processes: the redefinition of the European Union’s enlargement model, intensified geopolitical competition among the major powers and the internal institutional debate on decision-making mechanisms, including the question of veto rights. The crucial uncertainty remains the extent of political will within the European Union to turn these concepts into concrete, operational models of integration, such as phased membership and reform of the decision-making system.
Ljubljana/Washington/Brussels/Podgorica, 2 June 2026
[1] IFIMES - International Institute for Middle East and Balkan Studies, based in Ljubljana, Slovenia, has a special consultative status with the United Nations Economic and Social Council ECOSOC/UN in New York since 2018, and it is the publisher of the international scientific journal "European Perspectives." Available at: https://www.europeanperspectives.org/en
[2] Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung: Das wäre ein realistischer Weg in die EU (That would be a realistic path to the EU). Available at: https://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/ausland/serbien-und-albanien-ein-realistischer-weg-in-die-eu-accg-110845507.html
[3] Deutschlandfunk: Merz macht Druck für rasche EU-Erweiterung (Merz is pushing for rapid EU enlargement). Available at: https://www.deutschlandfunk.de/merz-macht-druck-fuer-rasche-eu-erweiterung-100.html?utm_source
[4] Foxnews: President Aleksandar Vučić: Europe vilifies Trump, but we in Serbia see a friend. Available at: https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/president-aleksandar-vui-europe-vilifies-trump-serbia-see-friend
