The International Institute for Middle East and Balkan Studies (IFIMES)[1] based in Ljubljana, Slovenia, follows political developments in Bosnia and Herzegovina, with a particular focus on processes that threaten democratic norms and the rule of law. Special attention is paid to the repeat elections for the President of Republika Srpska (RS), the outcome of which carries the potential for far-reaching consequences. From the comprehensive study “Bosnia and Herzegovina 2026: Partially Repeated Presidential Elections in the Republika Srpska Entity – An Institutional Precedent and a Political Turning Point” we highlight key conclusions and observed trends, which provide valuable insight into the current political environment and challenges to the democratic system in the entity.
The partially repeated early presidential elections in the Republika Srpska entity of Bosnia and Herzegovina, scheduled for 8 February 2026 at 136 polling stations across 17 local communities, constitute one of the most complex and politically sensitive electoral processes since the end of the war. With 85,070 eligible voters, their importance far exceeds their formally “partial” nature, unfolding against a backdrop of profound institutional crisis, an unprecedented judicial intervention, and an ongoing struggle for effective control over entity-level power.
The verdict against Milorad Dodik (SNSD) has triggered a deep and persistent institutional rift within Republika Srpska. In its initial reaction, the entity’s political leadership and the SNSD (Alliance of Independent Social Democrats) openly refused to acknowledge the court ruling, continuing to treat Dodik as a legitimate and undisputed authority. Although the decision was later formally accepted, the fundamental clash between the constitutional and legal order of Bosnia and Herzegovina and the political reality in Republika Srpska has remained unresolved. While state institutions and international actors insist on the unconditional implementation of judicial decisions, entity-level structures strive to preserve the existing balance of power, thereby intensifying the crisis of legal certainty and undermining institutional credibility.
The verdict against Milorad Dodik has still not been fully enforced, as the Basic Court in Banja Luka has been delaying its implementation through various means, effectively avoiding the removal of Dodik from the court register as president of the SNSD. This process has been ongoing for months, and it is deeply concerning that the public in Bosnia and Herzegovina remains largely unaware of these developments.
Officials and judges who attempt to justify non-compliance with this ruling face criminal liability and may be subject to imprisonment for evading official duties. This situation underscores the profound disconnect between the country’s judicial framework and political practice, presenting a direct and serious challenge to the rule of law and the credibility of institutions in Bosnia and Herzegovina.
Within this context, a striking political paradox has emerged: Milorad Dodik has been legally neutralized, yet he continues to exert decisive influence over the SNSD and much of the entity’s institutional apparatus. This widening gap between formal legality and political practice has opened space for a proxy arrangement embodied in the notion of a “Manchurian candidate”[2] — a solution currently personified by the candidacy of Siniša Karan (SNSD).
In the perception of both domestic and international audiences, Karan increasingly appears as a nominal office holder, lacking genuine political autonomy. His potential victory would effectively amount to a continuation of Dodik’s policies under a different name — an attempt to preserve real power while formally complying with a judicial ban. This approach goes far beyond tactical maneuvering; it represents a direct challenge to the rule of law, institutional integrity, and the democratic order of Bosnia and Herzegovina.
Dodik’s foreign-policy activism ahead of the repeated elections in Republika Srpska further reinforces these concerns. His actions evoke parallels with the strategies once employed by Slobodan Milošević — efforts to consolidate domestic authority through international pressure and by courting support from major powers, including Russia and the United States. History, however, offers a sobering lesson: such maneuvers often prove counterproductive. Milošević ultimately lost Montenegro and Kosovo, while Croatia and Bosnia and Herzegovina secured international recognition. Dodik’s current diplomatic gambits thus send a stark warning — engagement with external actors can quickly turn into a trap, with potentially grave and long-lasting consequences for Republika Srpska and the overall stability of Bosnia and Herzegovina.
The Central Election Commission of Bosnia and Herzegovina has published the corrected results of the early presidential elections in Republika Srpska: the Serbian Democratic Party (SDS) candidate, Branko Blanuša, secured 201,387 votes, while the SNSD candidate, Siniša Karan, received 195,686 votes, giving the opposition a margin of approximately 6,000 votes. The repeated voting held at 136 polling stations across 17 local communities, whose previous results were annulled by the CEC decision of 24 December 2025, has confirmed that this segment of the electorate could decisively shape the final outcome and determine the political trajectory of the entity.
The election results present two contrasting scenarios. A victory for Siniša Karan would effectively prolong Dodik’s political agenda: heightening confrontation with state institutions, potentially fostering parallel structures, intensifying internal tensions, isolating the entity, and amplifying external influences incompatible with Bosnia and Herzegovina’s European integration, thereby risking further destabilization of the entire country.
By contrast, a triumph for Branko Blanuša would create conditions for institutional stabilization and political de-escalation, foster dialogue with the state level, enhance cooperation with the international community, and enable the launch of reform initiatives, including a more assertive fight against crime and corruption. In a wider perspective, such an outcome could mark the beginning of a gradual dismantling of the authoritarian governance model and the strengthening of democratic processes within Republika Srpska.
The international community plays a pivotal role in the context of the partially repeated elections for the President of Republika Srpska. Effective monitoring of the electoral process, prevention of manipulation, timely responses to hate speech and attempts at destabilization, and safeguarding the constitutional order of Bosnia and Herzegovina are essential to maintaining the credibility and legitimacy of these elections.
Equally important are the coordinated mobilization of the opposition and the active engagement of local leaders, particularly in urban centers such as Laktaši, Doboj, Zvornik, and Bratunac. Their participation can decisively influence the transparency of the elections, the acceptance of results, and the overall legitimacy of institutional frameworks.
These partially repeated elections extend beyond a mere technical continuation of the electoral cycle – they constitute a critical test of the rule of law, democratic maturity, and resilience of state institutions. The outcome may mark a turning point: either the reaffirmation of a governance model rooted in personalized power and institutional circumvention of legal norms, or the onset of political reconfiguration, reduced tensions, and strengthened public trust in democratic and state mechanisms. The implications of these elections transcend the boundaries of the entity, bearing direct significance for the stability of Bosnia and Herzegovina and the wider region.
The re-elections in Republika Srpska are unfolding in a highly polarized and institutionally fragile environment, where the government led by Milorad Dodik seeks to control political processes by all available means. Beyond direct political and electoral pressures, the situation of independent and private media is particularly alarming, as they face ongoing attempts at marginalization, economic exhaustion, and institutional coercion.
Independent media serve as one of the last corrective mechanisms against the abuse of power, which makes them prime targets for political structures aiming to dominate the public space entirely. In this context, TV Hayat from Sarajevo and RTV BN from Bijeljina stand out as two private broadcasters operating under extremely difficult conditions, constantly exposed to political, regulatory, and economic pressures. Their consistent reporting on government abuses, electoral manipulation, and violations of democratic standards renders them undesirable actors in a political system exhibiting authoritarian tendencies.
Of special concern is the political instrumentalization of regulatory and economic mechanisms. For instance, certain state-level party initiatives (SDP, NiP, and Naša stranka), in tacit coordination with SNSD and HDZ, sought to remove TV Hayat from the BH Telecom program schedule. Such actions strike a severe blow to media pluralism, freedom of expression, and citizens’ right to information, sending a clear signal that independent journalism is unwelcome and punishable.
Another major issue is the long-standing manipulation of audience measurement systems and media regulation, in which the Institute of Metrology of Bosnia and Herzegovina plays a central role. Control over methodology allows the indirect suppression of independent media, reduction of advertising revenue, and long-term weakening of sustainability. This sophisticated form of economic pressure functions similarly to censorship, silencing critical voices and homogenizing the public sphere in favor of ruling structures.
In the context of repeated elections, such pressures further destabilize the political environment and threaten the transparency of the process. Citizens are deprived of alternative sources of information, while regime-aligned media dominate the public narrative. This dynamic seriously undermines fundamental democratic principles and raises questions about the regularity and legitimacy of the electoral process.
The role of the international community, European institutions, and media freedom organizations is therefore critical. Enhanced monitoring, timely intervention, and firm insistence on protecting media freedom as a core democratic standard are essential. The pressures exerted on TV Hayat and RTV BN are not isolated incidents, but part of a broader strategy to control public discourse and suppress critical voices. If allowed to continue unchecked, they pose a serious threat to the erosion of democratic institutions and to Bosnia and Herzegovina’s alignment with European values.
The cases of TV Hayat and RTV BN underscore that the struggle for media freedom in Bosnia and Herzegovina has reached a critical juncture. Independent media today operate under extremely challenging conditions, constantly facing political, regulatory, and economic pressures. Their protection extends far beyond the interests of the media sector itself—it is a matter of safeguarding the democratic order, freedom of expression, and citizens’ right to timely and objective information. Ensuring the survival and independence of these outlets is tantamount to protecting the public interest, democracy, and the future of BiH as an open and pluralistic society.
The International Institute IFIMES stresses that state authorities, regulatory bodies, and international partners must take immediate measures to:
Free and professional media form the very foundation of any democracy. Any attempt to silence them constitutes a direct threat to the rule of law, freedom of expression, and the trust of citizens in Bosnia and Herzegovina’s institutions.
Ljubljana/Washington/Brussels/Banja Luka, 4 February 2026
[1] IFIMES - International Institute for Middle East and Balkan Studies, based in Ljubljana, Slovenia, has a special consultative status with the United Nations Economic and Social Council ECOSOC/UN in New York since 2018, and it is the publisher of the international scientific journal "European Perspectives." Available at: https://www.europeanperspectives.org/en
[2] Manchurian candidate – a political figure or candidate who appears nominally independent but is in fact influenced or controlled by hidden centres of power, typically external actors or interest groups. Such a person serves to advance the political, security or economic objectives of others, while formally appearing as a representative of the people or institutions.
