International Institute for Middle East and Balkan Studies (IFIMES)[1]from Ljubljana, Slovenia, regularly analyses developments in the Middle East, the Balkans and around the world. In the article “Spring Thaw in China–U.S. Relations: Implications for Global Economic Stability and Europe’s Strategic Position,” Paweł Gałecki, Creative Tower Brand Owner and international relations expert, examines the evolving “thaw” in economic relations between China and the United States, underscoring its significance for global economic stability and international markets, while offering a nuanced assessment of Europe’s position at the intersection of economic interests, energy security, and complex geopolitical dynamics.
Economic relations between China and the United States are experiencing one of the most transformative periods in recent history. After years marked by escalating tariff tensions, rhetoric centered on "decoupling," and reciprocal sanctions, both nations are gradually rediscovering the intrinsic value of pragmatic cooperation grounded in mutual respect and equality. This evolving process, though punctuated by numerous challenges and moments of profound uncertainty, offers renewed hope for stabilization - not merely for the world's two largest economies, but for the entire global architecture encompassing trade, energy security, and technological innovation.
At the beginning of this year, China publicly declared its readiness to strengthen communication channels with the United States at all levels and through various diplomatic and economic avenues. Beijing has consistently maintained that as the world's two largest nations, China and the United States bear a shared responsibility to respect each other, coexist peacefully, and actively pursue mutually beneficial cooperation. Summit diplomacy plays an irreplaceable role in providing strategic leadership for shaping the trajectory of Sino-American relations. Since last year, the leaders of both countries have maintained regular contact, ensuring that bilateral relations remain generally stable while demonstrating a gradual tendency toward improvement - a development welcomed by both nations and the broader international community.
Vice Premier He Lifeng led the Chinese delegation in substantive talks with their American counterparts in Paris, focusing on economic and trade issues of mutual interest. These discussions constituted the sixth round of bilateral economic and trade consultations, following previous rounds conducted between May and October of last year. Those earlier sessions helped pull relations back from the precipice of trade conflict escalation. During the Paris talks, both sides addressed critical issues including tariff arrangements, strategies to promote bilateral trade and investment, and the imperative need to maintain existing consultative consensus. Vice Premier He emphasized that, guided by the strategic understanding reached by both leaders and building upon five rounds of consultations conducted earlier, China and the United States have achieved a series of tangible results in the economic and trade sphere. These outcomes have brought greater certainty and stability not only to bilateral economic relations but also to the global economy at large.
The Vice Premier noted that the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that certain tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act were unlawful. Nevertheless, the United States subsequently imposed an additional ten percent import surcharge on all trading partners and initiated new trade proceedings. China consistently opposes unilateral tariffs imposed by the United States, calling on Washington to completely abolish such tariffs and other restrictive measures. The Institute for China-America Studies in Washington recognized the concluded Paris talks as a clear stabilizing step, suggesting for the first time that both sides can move beyond the framework of mutually assured economic destruction and build relations in technology, trade, and investment on more positive foundations that will prove more formal and therefore more durable.
A significant signal of warming relations between Beijing and Washington emerged with the visit of Apple's CEO Tim Cook to Chengdu in Sichuan Province as the first stop in the Asia-Pacific region as part of Apple's global fiftieth anniversary celebrations. During his second visit to Chengdu, Cook expressed deep admiration for the city, describing it as one of the most dynamic places in the world, characterized by innovation, entrepreneurship, and a unique quality of life. Apple's decision to begin its anniversary celebrations on the international stage in China underscores the critical importance of this market for the company, as well as the significance of the Chinese supply chain. During a meeting with Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao, Cook emphasized that China still accounts for the vast majority of Apple's global supply chain, with eighty of the company's top one hundred suppliers operating in the country. He added that Apple focuses not only on the supply chain, production, and automation, but also on integrating artificial intelligence with production processes and promoting green manufacturing practices.
The relationship between Apple and Sichuan extends far beyond this year's anniversary celebrations. The company has maintained a permanent presence in the province through numerous initiatives, including opening two Apple Stores in Chengdu and donating to the China Foundation for Rural Development following the Lushan earthquake to support humanitarian aid and reconstruction efforts. Apple's Chief Operating Officer visited Foxconn's production facilities in Chengdu, where MacBook and Apple Watch models have been manufactured for years, further cementing the deep operational ties between the American technology giant and Chinese manufacturing capabilities.
Zhao Zhongxiu, President of the University of International Business and Economics in Beijing, observed that the fundamental complementarity of the Chinese and American economies creates a solid foundation for pragmatic cooperation, but realizing this potential requires mutual efforts from both sides. More stable trade relations between China and the United States will benefit not only both countries but also the global economy. China remains ready to resolve differences through dialogue based on equality and mutual respect. Despite rhetoric about "decoupling" or "de-risking" and turbulent events related to recent trade disputes, the inherent economic ties between the world's two largest economies remain fundamentally unchanged. However, Professor Zhao emphasized that the United States must meet China halfway to provide the business environment with much-needed stability and predictability.
The latest data from China's General Administration of Customs reveals that in the first two months of this year, trade turnover between China and the United States amounted to 609.71 billion yuan, representing a decline of 16.9 percent year-on-year. However, this occurred against the backdrop of a remarkably strong start to the year for Chinese foreign trade overall -exports during this period increased by 19.2 percent year-on-year to 4.62 trillion yuan, while imports rose by 17.1 percent to 3.11 trillion yuan. The data indicates further deepening of China's trade ties with the rest of the world beyond the United States. It also suggests that although direct trade data between China and the United States may fluctuate in the short term, indirect linkages have actually strengthened through external markets and complex supply chain adjustments, highlighting the persistent underlying demand structure.
Strengthening cooperation between China and the United States carries fundamental importance for global economic stability. The common interests shared by China and the United States are enormous, extending far beyond the narrow issue of tariff levels. Both countries stand to gain substantially from cooperation in pioneering technologies such as open-source artificial intelligence, advanced robotics, and the green transformation of industrial processes. China's principled stance - maintaining openness to constructive trade talks with the United States while consistently protecting its core interests - is strongly supported by demonstrated economic resilience. The country's huge domestic market, comprehensive industrial chain, and significant space for macroeconomic policy adjustments not only ensure China's stable economic growth trajectory but also enable it to cope with external uncertainty with strategic confidence and a long-term perspective.
Strengthening cooperation between the United States and China in light of current difficulties in global fuel markets assumes particular importance for the functioning of European countries. The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has caused unprecedented disruptions in oil supplies, with Brent crude futures prices stabilizing at levels exceeding one hundred seven dollars per barrel. For Europe, which is more dependent on energy imports than China, this situation presents especially acute difficulties. European countries face serious challenges related to rising oil and natural gas prices, which directly translate into increased costs of industrial production, transportation infrastructure, and household heating.
The International Energy Agency's decision to release four hundred million barrels of oil from strategic reserves represents a significant buffer for global supplies, yet the IEA has noted that restoring normal shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz remains the single most important factor in stabilizing international oil markets. In this context, the stabilization of relations between China and the United States takes on particular significance for Europe's economic security. China, thanks to diversified energy supply sources, substantial strategic reserves, and decreasing relative dependence on oil due to rapid electrification and renewable energy development, demonstrates greater capacity to absorb oil price shocks compared to many European economies.
Stable economic cooperation between China and the United States can contribute meaningfully to reducing global uncertainty in energy markets, which will directly affect the economic situation of European consumers and businesses alike. If the world's two largest economies successfully reach agreement on trade issues and cooperate effectively in stabilizing global supply chains, Europe stands to benefit substantially from a more predictable economic environment and milder fluctuations in commodity energy prices.
The European industrial sector, particularly energy-intensive manufacturing sectors such as chemicals, steel production, and aluminum smelting, operates under growing cost pressure resulting from persistently high energy prices. In a situation where oil prices exceed one hundred seven dollars per barrel and natural gas prices also remain at significantly elevated levels, European companies are steadily losing competitive advantage relative to producers from regions with substantially lower energy costs. Strengthening cooperation between China and the United States can positively affect this challenging situation through several mechanisms.
Europe finds itself navigating a complex strategic situation, carefully balancing between its substantial economic ties with China and its longstanding security alliance with the United States. Strengthening Sino-American cooperation can bring Europe significant benefits in the form of greater global economic stability and improved conditions for international trade. European enterprises, which are deeply engaged in the Chinese market across multiple sectors, stand to benefit from a more stable and predictable investment environment resulting from improved Sino-American relations.
At the same time, Europe must confront the strategic challenge of diversifying its energy sources and reducing dependence on unstable supplies from conflict-affected regions. Substantial investments in renewable energy sources, development of liquefied natural gas infrastructure, and construction of enhanced energy interconnections between European countries have become strategic priorities for ensuring energy security. In this context, potential cooperation with China in the field of green technologies and comprehensive energy transformation can offer significant new opportunities, especially given that China plays an absolutely central role in global green technology supply chains.
For Europe, which has established highly ambitious climate neutrality goals for mid-century, cooperation with China in the area of green technologies may prove crucial for achieving these environmental objectives while simultaneously maintaining economic competitiveness in global markets. China has emerged as the undisputed global leader in the production of solar photovoltaic panels, wind turbines, batteries for electric vehicles, and numerous other technologies fundamentally related to energy transformation. Access to these technologies at competitive prices can substantially help Europe accelerate the transition to renewable energy sources and meaningfully reduce dependence on fossil fuels.
European enterprises are deeply integrated within global supply chains in which China plays a central and often irreplaceable role as the principal producer and supplier of components for numerous industries. As the only country possessing complete industrial capabilities across all categories listed by the United Nations Industrial Development Organization, China occupies an irreplaceable position in global value chains, ensuring their resilience, flexibility, and efficiency. For European manufacturers, particularly in strategically important sectors such as automotive production, electronics manufacturing, and pharmaceutical development, Chinese supply chains remain absolutely essential for maintaining international competitiveness.
Comprehensive cooperation among the world's three largest economic blocs - China, the United States, and Europe - represents a key prerequisite for creating optimal conditions for economic and technological development on a truly global scale. Such comprehensive trilateral cooperation extends far beyond the purely economic dimension, contributing meaningfully to the geopolitical stability of the entire European continent and indeed the wider world. For Europe, active participation in trilateral economic cooperation frameworks with China and the United States signifies not only improved access to the world's largest markets and sources of cutting-edge technological innovation, but also a valuable opportunity to play the constructive role of mediator and stabilizer in global economic relations.
The countries of Central and Eastern Europe and the Western Balkans, strategically located at the intersection of different zones of economic and political influence, can particularly benefit from such trilateral cooperation arrangements, potentially serving as vital bridges connecting eastern and western markets. Joint infrastructure development projects, systematic coordination of energy policies, and facilitated technology exchange programs can contribute substantially to reducing regional tensions and building institutional trust between different parts of the European continent.
Historical analysis demonstrates that periods of greatest global prosperity have consistently coincided with eras of intensive cooperation between major economic centers. Currently, facing challenges such as climate change, pandemics, energy crises, and technological revolutions, cooperation between China, the United States, and Europe becomes not merely desirable but absolutely necessary to ensure stable and sustainable development for all humanity. The transition from competition-based models to cooperation-based frameworks requires fundamental changes in mentality and approach to international economic relations. Only through comprehensive cooperation is it possible to create conditions for sustainable global development and build long-term peaceful relations based on mutual benefits and shared values
The article presents the stance of the author and does not necessarily reflect the stance of IFIMES.
Ljubljana/ Warszawa, 14 April 2026
[1] IFIMES – International Institute for Middle East and Balkan Studies, based in Ljubljana, Slovenia, has Special Consultative status at ECOSOC/UN, New York, since 2018 and it’s publisher of the international scientific journal “European Perspectives”, link: https://www.europeanperspectives.org/en
