The International Institute for Middle East and Balkan Studies (IFIMES)[1] based in Ljubljana, Slovenia, regularly conducts analyses of events spanning the Middle East, the Balkans, and global affairs. Ahead of the parliamentary elections scheduled for 11 May 2025, IFIMES has prepared an analysis of the current political landscape in the Republic of Albania. From the in-depth analysis entitled “Parliamentary elections in Albania 2025: The last chance for Albania to become a ‘normal state’”, we present the most important and compelling excerpts.
On 11 May 2025, Albania will hold its eleventh parliamentary elections since the collapse of Enver Hoxha’s communist regime in 1991.
A total of 140 members of parliament will be elected across 12 multi-member constituencies, using a proportional representation system with open lists. The national electoral threshold is set at 1%, and mandates will be allocated according to the D'Hondt method. For the first time, a significant turnout from the diaspora is anticipated.
Demographic shifts have led to changes in the allocation of parliamentary seats among constituencies. In the Tirana constituency, for instance, 37 MPs will be elected; in Fier, 16; Durrës and Elbasan, 14 each; Vlorë, 12; Shkodër, 11; Korçë, 10; Lezhë and Berat, 7 each; Dibër, 5; Gjirokastër, 4; and in Kukës, only three representatives will be elected.
The Central Election Commission (CEC) has registered 53 political parties and 3 coalitions. To qualify for the ballot, parties must either be represented in the current parliament or submit 5,000 supporting signatures, while coalitions must either hold parliamentary seats or provide 7,000 signatures.
At the upcoming parliamentary elections, two major political blocs are once again set to face off: the Democratic Party – Alliance for a Great Albania (ASHM), led by Sali Berisha (DP), and the bloc of incumbent Prime Minister Edi Rama (SP), formed around the Socialist Party and running under the banner of the Third Way. Several smaller political parties will also stand in the elections, including the Euroatlantic Coalition, the Together Movement, the Opportunity Party, and the Initiative Albania Becomes. Some of these parties are considered satellite parties of Edi Rama.
Despite Prime Minister Edi Rama’s (SP) self-congratulatory rhetoric about the alleged achievements of his administration, Albania remains one of the least developed countries in Europe. Following the fall of Enver Hoxha’s rigid communist regime in 1991, it was widely expected that the country’s retrograde forces would be relegated to history for good. However, since coming to power in 2013, Edi Rama’s Socialist Party (SP) – the successor to the former Communist Party of Albania – has managed to establish a hybrid regime that combines elements of both Slobodan Milošević’s and Enver Hoxha’s rule.
Although Albania was granted EU candidate status in September 2014, accession negotiations only began in late 2022. Key tasks the country is expected to address include judicial reform, combating crime (particularly drug and human trafficking) and corruption, ensuring media independence, depoliticising institutions, improving efficiency, and fostering a more dynamic dialogue between the government and the opposition — all with the aim of making the reform process more comprehensive and faster-paced.
Political pressure, intimidation, widespread corruption and limited resources continue to hinder the judiciary from functioning fully, independently and effectively. Corruption permeates all sectors and levels of government, including public procurement and public–private partnerships.
EU accession negotiations are nowhere near what the Edi Rama regime and certain EU officials are trying to portray. Estimates suggest that revenues from the narcotics trade exceed the size of Albania’s national budget — making drug trafficking the only sector truly ‘on the European path.’ The extent of crime and corruption in Albania can be compared to that surrounding Milorad Dodik (SNSD), who, along with his oligarchic circle, is believed to hold assets worth three billion euros in Slovenia alone — equivalent to the annual budget of a small state. Edi Rama is trying to create the impression that everyone else in Albania is a criminal except him, pointing the finger at his political rivals, particularly opposition leaders Sali Berisha (DP) and Ilir Meta (PL).
The Socialist Party has never managed to become a modern European left-wing party, either in terms of programme or ideology. Its four stated priorities — economic recovery, social renewal, the restoration of democracy, and European integration — have remained unfulfilled. The initial wave of optimism quickly evaporated, and Edi Rama came to symbolise the ‘cannabisation of Albania’ and the flourishing of organised crime and the narcotics trade.
Undue pressure and media silencing remain constant in Albania. The Edi Rama regime has promoted public–private partnerships with criminal structures as a modern variation of the authoritarian plunder model, all unfolding before the eyes of Albanian citizens.
The roots of the current situation lie in the personal and direct collaboration between the Socialist Party (SP) and organised criminal networks. The appointment of individuals with serious criminal records to positions in the national parliament and local government has led to a surge in criminal network activity, particularly in the production and trafficking of narcotics. Direct cooperation between Albania’s executive authorities and organised criminal networks, coupled with judicial complacency, has enabled vote-buying financed through criminal means and illicit drug proceeds.
Rama has become a total autocrat who de facto holds absolute control over all segments of the state and society. The central question is who in the West is enabling his rule, and whether foreign officials — particularly from the EU — are complicit in the octopus of corruption he has created. As a corrupt strongman, Edi Rama continues to mislead the West. He has gone to particular lengths to curry favour with US President Donald Trump and secure direct access to him, while simultaneously maintaining close and well-established ties with Trump’s fiercest opponents in Washington. His attempts to arrange a meeting or even a dinner with Donald Trump Jr. ultimately proved unsuccessful.
The Democratic Party, under Sali Berisha, was instrumental in toppling Enver Hoxha’s regime. But can Albania truly exist without a regime, and become a normal democratic state built on the highest democratic standards, economically prosperous, and offering a strong outlook for the future?
The Democratic Party and Sali Berisha, in alliance with other opposition parties and most importantly with the support of voters and the Albanian people, have the potential to jointly bring down Edi Rama’s regime at the upcoming parliamentary elections, assuming those elections are free, fair, and transparent. Rama’s rule combines elements of both Slobodan Milošević’s and Enver Hoxha’s regimes. As a veteran of Albanian politics, Sali Berisha (DP) is fully aware of the historical weight and responsibility he carries, as he is now tasked with bringing down a regime for the second time — having once toppled Enver Hoxha and now facing Edi Rama. The fall of Rama’s regime would offer a new opportunity and renewed hope for Albania, marking the beginning of a new chapter in the country’s socio-economic and political development.
Albania’s relatively weak rule of law remains the primary obstacle to effective control over drug trafficking. Any meaningful criminal justice reform must include the removal of judges and prosecutors with links to organised crime and significant unexplained personal wealth.
The Special Structure Against Corruption and Organised Crime (SPAK), composed of the Special Prosecution Office (SPO) and the National Bureau of Investigation (NBI), remains significantly under-resourced, with parts of its staff ‘infected’ by political and criminal influence.
The situation in Albania is deeply concerning. Citizens are increasingly frustrated by persistent problems, including corruption and clientelism, a weak rule of law, ongoing emigration and brain drain, stalled judicial reforms, and the sluggish pace of EU integration.
If Albania is to become a truly ‘normal state,’ it must establish a functional democracy with independent institutions, a transparent and effective public administration, equal treatment before the law, and a society in which citizens have trust in elections and state institutions. Economic development must also be accelerated in order to curb mass emigration.
Political analysts argue that the early years of the Socialist Party and Edi Rama’s leadership were marked by promises of sweeping reforms and the creation of a ‘normal state.’ However, it soon became evident that Albania was increasingly turning into a narco-state, operating more like a drug cartel — one that, in return, received praise from Brussels, seemingly driven by questionable financial flows. Public statements by certain European officials regarding Albania’s progress on the EU path should be viewed with considerable scepticism, given the high exposure to corruption risks. The arrests of opposition leaders Sali Berisha and Ilir Meta, in clear violation of the law and constitution, have exposed both the reach and the limits of Rama’s version of democracy. For this reason, the upcoming parliamentary elections may well be the final opportunity for voters, with a pen in hand, to choose a political option that will ensure Albania functions as a ‘normal state’ and achieves prosperity — one free from selective political persecution and biased justice, and committed to dismantling the drug cartels that serve as key levers of Rama’s power and the main drivers of criminal and corrupt activity.
Additional insight into Edi Rama’s rule comes from the testimonies of some of his former closest associates, most notably his former Deputy Prime Minister, Arben Ahmetaj, who also served as Minister of Economy, Minister of Finance, Minister for Reconstruction following the devastating earthquake, and Deputy Prime Minister from 2021 to 2022. He was one of the most influential members of the government until 2023, when he became the central figure in the so-called ‘incinerator affair’ — a corruption scandal involving the misuse of public funds through concessions for waste incineration facilities in Elbasan, Fier and Tirana. Ahmetaj was dismissed from office, left Albania, and sought political asylum in Switzerland. He now accuses Edi Rama of orchestrating corruption schemes and claims that Rama personally asked him to amend the law to enable the sale of public debt to one of his Israeli associates.
Erion Veliaj, a close political ally of Edi Rama, has served as Mayor of Tirana since 2015. Their relationship suffered a serious rift following Veliaj’s arrest in February 2025 on charges of corruption and money laundering, including allegations of embezzling at least 1.1 million euros in public funds. The charges are linked to waste incinerator projects in Tirana. Veliaj is currently in pre-trial detention in Durrës, awaiting trial.
The upcoming elections are widely regarded as a ‘last chance,’ serving as a critical test for democracy and institutional reform. Albania’s EU integration process has entered a delicate phase, with official Brussels now expecting tangible results rather than declarative statements. Albanians are increasingly weary of Edi Rama and the Socialist Party, and many have lost faith in the political elite, demanding meaningful change across all areas of public life. Citizens are genuinely concerned that, without profound reform, Albania may remain a ‘captured state’ with no real prospects for the future.
The fight against corruption is no longer a mission impossible. Thanks to artificial intelligence (AI), it is now possible to analyse millions of documents, track patterns, detect fake contracts and rigged tenders, uncover mafia links, and trace concealed money flows. AI does not forget, does not take bribes, and does not lose track of those responsible for criminal and corrupt activity.
Public opinion polls in Albania do not always reflect the true mood of the electorate ahead of election day. Political parties often use polling data to shape their electoral strategies, conduct debates and analyses, and target their political opponents. Ultimately, the future of Albania rests in the hands of its voters.
Ljubljana/Brussels/Washington/Tirana, 8 May 2025
[1] IFIMES - International Institute for Middle East and Balkan Studies, based in Ljubljana, Slovenia, has a special consultative status with the United Nations Economic and Social Council ECOSOC/UN in New York since 2018, and it is the publisher of the international scientific journal "European Perspectives.", link: https://www.europeanperspectives.org/en
