The International Institute for Middle East and Balkan Studies (IFIMES)[1] in Ljubljana regularly analyzes developments in the Middle East, the Balkans and around the world. In this analysis, IFIMES provides a comprehensive geopolitical assessment of Kazakhstan’s transformation into a responsible middle power, strengthening its strategic redundancy through multi-vector diplomacy, its role as a strategic connector between Europe and Asia, and its active engagement in international security, nuclear disarmament and global governance. Presented below are the most significant and compelling parts of the analysis, “Kazakhstan 2026: Responsible Middle Power and Strategic Connector of Eurasia”.
The address of the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in Bishkek recently clearly indicates the direction of Kazakhstan's foreign policy. Tokayev sees the SCO not merely as a regional security mechanism, but as a platform for creating more balanced, inclusive and cooperative international system.
President of the Republic of Kazakhstan Kassym-Jomart Tokayev
In doing so, he highlighted the “Shanghai spirit”, which is based on equality, consensus, mutual respect and cooperation. The initiative to include the fundamental principles of the SCO in a special resolution of the UN General Assembly indicates Astana’s efforts to include regional experiences and principles in the broader framework of global governance.
Tokayev does not position the SCO as an alternative to the UN, but rather emphasizes that there is no alternative to the UN, while at the same time advocating its greater efficiency and adaptation to new global conditions. Such an approach allows Kazakhstan to strengthen cooperation with various centers of power while maintaining an independent and multi-vector foreign policy.
For Astana, the SCO is thus becoming a platform for new multilateralism, where countries of different political and geopolitical orientations seek common interests and form cooperation mechanisms. Kazakhstan’s key strategic capital is precisely the ability to connect different centers of power.
One of the most important elements of Tokayev’s speech was the explicit mention of the concept of a “responsible middle power”. These are countries that do not themselves represent global centers of power, but can significantly influence the formation of the international order with their diplomatic, economic and geopolitical weight.
IFIMES understands the concept of a “responsible middle power” broader than its current political context. It is an analytical framework that can be used to define countries that build their international relevance not so much on size or military power, but on the ability to connect different centers of power, mediate in conflicts, promote multilateralism and find common solutions to global and regional challenges. In this context, Kazakhstan represents one of the most prominent examples of the implementation of the concept of a responsible middle power in the modern international system.
Kazakhstan clearly wants to take on one of the leading roles in this group of countries. Its geographical location gives it a special advantage in this. It is the largest country in Central Asia, borders Russia and China, and represents an important link between China, Central Asia, the Caspian Sea, the Caucasus and Europe.
Tokayev is therefore building his foreign policy on the concept of strategic autonomy – the establishment of several parallel economic, transport, energy and political connections that reduce dependence on a single partner or transport corridor. Kazakhstan is thus simultaneously developing relations with China, Russia, the European Union, the United States, Turkey, the Gulf States and other partners.
In an exclusive interview with the Chinese news agency Xinhua, Tokayev emphasized that relations between Kazakhstan and China are at a historically high level. Cooperation ranges from energy, infrastructure and trade to digitalization, artificial intelligence, industry, science and education.
Of particular importance is the development of the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR), or the Middle Corridor, which connects China with Europe via Kazakhstan, the Caspian Sea, the South Caucasus and Turkey.
In a situation where traditional transport links between Asia and Europe are exposed to geopolitical risks, the Middle Corridor is gaining strategic importance. Kazakhstan is gradually transforming from a country that was primarily a transit zone between great powers into an active designer of the Eurasian transport architecture.
It is crucial for Astana not to remain just a transit country, but to develop logistics, industry, warehousing, digital customs procedures and production capacities, which would create a larger part of the added value in Kazakhstan.
The Joint Statement of the Ministers of Foreign Affairs of the States Parties to the Treaty on a Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone in Central Asia (CANWFZ), adopted on 8 September 2026, on the 20th anniversary of the signing of the Treaty in Semipalatinsk, also plays an important role in Kazakhstan’s broader strategy. Its symbolic and geopolitical weight goes beyond the regional framework, as five Central Asian states – Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan – established a nuclear-weapon-free zone with a 2006 treaty, the first and only such zone entirely in the Northern Hemisphere and directly bordering two nuclear states.
This dimension is of particular importance for Kazakhstan due to the historical heritage of Semipalatinsk, which was one of the key nuclear test sites during the Soviet era. The closure of the nuclear test site and the abandonment of the Soviet nuclear arsenal have become the cornerstones of Kazakhstan’s nuclear security policy, from which Astana today builds its diplomatic credibility on issues of non-proliferation and nuclear disarmament. This has gradually transformed a space once associated with nuclear testing and radioactive contamination into a nuclear-free region and an important advocate for global disarmament efforts.
On the occasion of the 20th anniversary of the CANWFZ, the States Parties reaffirmed the importance of nuclear-weapon-free zones as an important universal instrument for preventing the proliferation of nuclear weapons and strengthening the process of global disarmament. They stressed the role of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), and the early entry into force of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT). Of particular importance is the lack of progress in nuclear disarmament, the weakening of key arms control agreements, and the continued modernization of nuclear arsenals. The message from the Central Asian states is clear: long-term security cannot be built on the continuous increase in nuclear capabilities, but on verifiable arms control, dialogue, trust, and effective multilateralism.
This is where one of the key features of the concept of a “responsible middle power” can be identified. Kazakhstan does not build its international relevance solely on economic potential, strategic geographical location or the ability to connect different centers of power, but also on normative diplomacy. By actively advocating nuclear disarmament, nuclear non-proliferation, a ban on nuclear tests and the strengthening of international control mechanisms, Astana is creating a diplomatic space that goes beyond its material power.
Nuclear diplomacy is therefore more than a security policy issue for Kazakhstan – it is an instrument of its international (re)positioning. The Semipalatinsk experience gives this policy special credibility, as it is based on direct historical experience and not just on an abstract political position. The transformation of Semipalatinsk from a site of nuclear tests and their long-term consequences into a symbol of nuclear disarmament represents one of the strongest examples of normative transformation in contemporary international politics.
The call by the States Parties to establish new nuclear-weapon-free zones, including in the Middle East, is also important. This issue has broader implications for international security, as the Middle East is one of the most sensitive areas of global nuclear policy. With this approach, Kazakhstan places its nuclear policy within the broader framework of global governance, linking regional experience with universal principles of international security.
It is precisely the combination of strategic geographical location, multi-vector diplomacy, regional integration, peacekeeping policy and nuclear responsibility that strengthens Kazakhstan’s profile as a responsible middle power. Astana is thus building its strategic resilience not only by diversifying economic and political partnerships, but also by creating its own normative and diplomatic visibility.
Tokayev has placed artificial intelligence among the issues of global stability. Artificial intelligence is no longer just a technological or economic issue, but increasingly concerns national security, national competitiveness, data management, education, energy infrastructure and geopolitical sovereignty. Kazakhstan wants to position itself as a regional hub in this area, declaring 2026 the year of digitalization and artificial intelligence. At the same time, Tokayev emphasizes cooperation with Chinese technology companies and international institutions.
It will be crucial for Astana not to remain a mere user of foreign technologies, but to develop its own competencies, human capital and technological infrastructure. The ability to combine international technological cooperation with the development of domestic capabilities will be an important test of its long-term digital sovereignty.
The issue of water has a similar strategic dimension. Tokayev’s proposal to establish an International Water Organization under the auspices of the UN shows that Astana is increasingly treating water security as an issue of global governance, and in doing so, is pursuing a proactive and initiative-oriented policy. In Central Asia, this is particularly sensitive due to climate change, population growth, agricultural production needs and transboundary water resources. The proposed SCO Water Analysis Centre could become an important regional mechanism for exchanging data and knowledge and developing joint solutions. Water is thus increasingly being transformed from an environmental issue into an issue of national and food security, energy and regional stability.
Tokayev also linked his speech to internal political and institutional reforms in Kazakhstan. Comprehensive political and economic reforms represent a response to contemporary global challenges and a basis for strengthening social and economic resilience. The new constitution, which entered into force on 1 July 2026, laid the foundations for further modernisation of the country and a new system of state power, within the framework of which the unicameral Kurultai also began to operate.
Internal stability, economic resilience and institutional predictability are also crucial for Kazakhstan due to its geopolitically sensitive position between Russia, China and the wider Eurasian space. The reform process is aimed at building a more just and progressive Kazakhstan and creating conditions for sustainable development and strategic autonomy.
Internal reforms are closely linked to foreign policy. Astana remains committed to a balanced, constructive and peaceful foreign policy, cooperation with various partners and the prevention of bloc confrontation. Internal stability and institutional predictability are thus important conditions for the effective implementation of Kazakhstan’s multi-vector diplomacy.
An important aspect of Tokayev’s approach is also his insistence on the central role of the UN. This is especially important in times of increasing fragmentation of the international system and the strengthening of regional organizations. Tokayev advocates a model in which regional organizations complement the UN, not replace it. Such an approach allows Kazakhstan to cooperate with various geopolitical centers without having to submit to the logic of bloc confrontation, while at the same time strengthening its role as a defender of multilateralism and a more inclusive international order.
Kazakh-Chinese relations are entering a new phase. In the past, cooperation was largely related to energy, raw materials and infrastructure. Today, the focus is gradually shifting to technology, artificial intelligence, digitalization, manufacturing and logistics.
China has the capacity, capital and technology, while Kazakhstan has the space, natural resources, geographical position and access to Eurasian markets. If Astana manages to combine these comparative advantages, it can become an important economic and logistical center of the wider Eurasia.
The key question here will be whether Kazakhstan will be able to achieve a sufficiently high level of local production and technology transfer so that cooperation with China will not remain limited to transit, raw materials and infrastructure.
Kazakhstan's development is also of direct importance for Europe. The European Union needs new, safer and more diverse transport and energy connections with Asia. The Central Corridor is therefore becoming an increasingly important element of the European strategy for connecting with Central Asia.
This also opens up opportunities for the countries of the Western Balkans. Slovenia, Croatia, Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina and other countries in the region should monitor the development of new Eurasian corridors more systematically.
The question for the Western Balkans is whether it will remain primarily a European periphery or whether it will be able to become part of new transport, logistics, energy and technological connections between Europe and Asia. In this context, it makes sense to think about stronger institutional integration of Central Asia and the Western Balkans, including the possibility of creating a joint political and economic format or a Central Asia-Western Balkans summit.
Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s speech in Bishkek and the joint statement of the Central Asian countries on the 20th anniversary of the Treaty on the Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone confirm Kazakhstan’s strategic orientation: it is converting its geographical location, economic potential, diplomatic capital and historical experience into greater international weight. In doing so, Astana does not define itself between East and West, but rather builds the role of a linker of different centers of power.
The essence of this strategy is “strategic redundancy” – a planned dispersion of partnerships and parallel connections with which Kazakhstan protects its strategic autonomy. The SCO is an important platform for it, but not an alternative to the UN, China a strategic partner, but not the only one. The key test will be whether Astana can maintain sufficient room for maneuver in the face of growing Chinese capital, technology and infrastructure, while at the same time developing its own capabilities in the areas of transport, digitalization and artificial intelligence.
Nuclear diplomacy is equally important. From Semipalatinsk and the abandonment of the Soviet nuclear arsenal to support for the NPT, CTBT and nuclear-weapon-free zones, Kazakhstan is transforming its historical experience into normative diplomatic capital. This strengthens the profile of a country that builds its international relevance on responsibility, multilateralism and the search for common solutions.
IFIMES estimates that Kazakhstan’s strategic importance will grow primarily due to its ability to connect China and Europe, Russia and Central Asia, as well as regional organizations and the UN. Kazakhstan is not building its strategic autonomy by choosing sides, but by its ability to connect sides. This is precisely what is becoming its most important strategic capital in the emerging multipolar system.
Ljubljana/Brussels/Bishkek/Astana, 11 September 2026
[1] IFIMES - International Institute for Middle East and Balkan Studies, based in Ljubljana, Slovenia, has held a special consultative status with the United Nations Economic and Social Council ECOSOC/UN in New York since 2018. The institute is publisher of the international scientific journal "European Perspectives." Available at: https://www.europeanperspectives.org/en
