The International Institute for Middle-East and Balkan Studies (IFIMES)[1], from Ljubljana, is widely recognized for its insightful and comprehensive analyses of global developments, with a particular focus on the Middle East, the Balkans, and other strategically significant regions. One of its distinguished contributors, Dr. J. Scott Younger—President Commissioner at Glendale Partners and member of the IFIMES Advisory Board—offers a timely reflection in his article “Global Disorder and the Unravelling of Strategic Certainties: ‘Where Next, and What Next?’”. As the war in Ukraine enters its fifth year and the second presidential term of Donald Trump unfolds, he argues that the global landscape is increasingly characterized by deep instability and strategic uncertainty.
The Just entered the 5th year of the Ukraine - Russia war, and still no agreement to call a halt. It is also three months into President Trump’s second year of his second term in the White House and some days after he gave his due annual address to the nation, a peroration lasting for almost two hours in true Trumpian style, considerably longer than any of his predecessors. The boredom was showing on the faces of those attending! Inevitably, several of his statements on the economy were wrong, exaggerated.
He has little interest left in putting his mind to resolving the war in Ukraine and pursuing the enormous task to conclude peace in Gaza. As usual, it has passed the limit of his attention span.
Last year was latterly much about obtaining the Nobel Peace Prize, which he was very disappointed not to receive since he genuinely believed that he had earned it. Strangely, the two wars in Ukraine and Palestine, which he assured us he would put a stop to within a day or so of gaining office, are still going in Ukraine’s case, is marking time in the case of Gaza, but could restart to an unpleasant degree.
This year has seen his attention moved to other issues. First, he suggested it would be a good idea if Canada would become the 51st state of the USA forgetting that it was a UK commonwealth country with strong affiliation. The pronouncement was met with astonishment and robustly rejected.
He quickly turned his attention to Greenland, a large piece of snowbound land in the Arctic circle with a very small population of approximately 55,000, belonging to Denmark, part of the European Union. Denmark received support from the EU and the UK, in terms of advising Trump that surely his concern for Russian or Chinese attempts to take over Greenland would invoke a response from NATO. They also moved war ships and a few troops to assist Denmark if needed. He backed off grudgingly and it is possibly not the end of the issue.
Meantime Venezuela was irritating the President as the source of drugs entering the US. In short, with a quick sortie undertaken by handpicked troops, he captured the Venezuelan president, Maduro, and took him and his wife as prisoners to New York, where they are held in prison awaiting resolution. Maria Machado, the Venezuelan opposition leader who was awarded the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize, which was coveted by President Trump, made a gesture of handing Trump her prize to cool the political temperature. With the undertaking that the Venezuelan government with Maduro’s deputy in charge would work closely with the US administration, the temperature has cooled.
About a month ago the Israeli PM paid a short flying visit to Trump’s Florida residence. The substance of the discussions was not given. One can only surmise because of the events which followed, the sudden, overnight attack on Iran by the air forces of Israel and the US. This was a declaration of war, on which NATO allies, the European Union had no advance warning.
The US and Israel Air Forces made a combined attack with many bombs and missiles raining down upon Iran on selected targets from which they killed the Ayatollah, the Supreme Leader and a number of key people in the Islamic regime in charge. This is likely to have followed Netanyahu’s trip to Florida to persuade Trump that this was the time to hit Iran hard and fast so that the war that resulted could be over quickly. Trump was persuaded but he realised in due course that the assumption that the action would be over quickly would be probably wrong and he would have to find another route in order to ‘justify’ to his supporter base the reason for starting the war.
To show that he was a ‘man of peace’ he called a two-week ceasefire, and delegations from each side met in Pakistan, which was the country offering their services to act as broker. The major issue arising concerned the passage of oil tankers through the straits of Hormuz, the key weapon that the Iranians held, the blockage of all shipping through the straits, which threatened many world economies dependent on oil and, if allowed to continue, would be devastating to many of these economies. The ceasefire was meant to apply to all parties in the war. However, the Israeli did not accept this and continued to attack Hezbollah in Lebanon with civilians killed, much as had occurred in Gaza. It is clear that the Israelis welcomed this war to further smash Iranian acolytes, Hezbollah and also previously Hamas.
Meanwhile, Trump chose this moment to have a ‘war of words’ with the Pope, who had dared to criticise the Iranian war. Trump’s words were typically brainless and rude but quite rightly treated with disdain by Pope Leo. Many a mouth fell open with great surprise when a picture appeared on Social Media depicting Trump as Jesus. It has caused quite a furore among American Catholics and doubtless his support base has shrunk further. Even more than ever he seems to speak whatever comes into his mind and not think first of the likely reaction to what is said.
The British press is daily commenting on the latest outpouring from the president. However, the most interesting piece was recently put out by a serving member of Trump’s first administration, nearly a decade ago, from which he decided to watch closely his future actions. The analysis is disturbingly accurate, a narcissist of limited knowledge, a disturbing combination with so much unchecked power.
While the US concentrated on Iran, the Israelis took the opportunity to aggressively attack Hezbollah in Lebanon and refused to believe that the ceasefire included their actions carried on and also bombed Beirut, not where Hezbollah operated from. Trump, for once, told them to desist, which they have done reluctantly but are ready to restart if talks fail.
The key from a world point of view, is to have oil tankers passing freely through the Straits of Hormuz which the Iranians have agreed to, but the Trump says no ships may pass until the Iranians have agreed to pass their nuclear activities over to the US. Stalemate once more, although Trump says he is pleased with the manner in which negotiations are going. The Iranians are more circumspect, however. Will Trump be able to chalk the status quo and successful follow on as a ‘peaceful’ victory to cover his starting the war, albeit at the behest of Netanyahu? Will the other nations who desparately want peace in the Straits of Hormuz as soon as possible get their way. Unanswered questions, which the next few days/weeks, we hope, pour light on.
About the author:
Dr. J. Scott Younger, OBE, is a professional civil engineer; he spent 42 years in the Far East undertaking assignments in 10 countries for WB, ADB, UNDP. He published many papers; he was a columnist for Forbes Indonesia and Globe Asia. He served on British & European Chamber boards and was a Vice Chair of Int’l Business Chamber for 17 years. His expertise is infrastructure and sustainable development and he takes an interest in international affairs. He is an International Chancellor of the President University, Indonesia and Honorary Senior Research Fellow of the Glasgow University. He is a member of IFIMES Advisory Board. Lived and worked in Thailand from 1978 to 1983 and visited Burma, Bangladesh and Nepal for projects.
The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect IFIMES official position.
Ljubljana/Glasgow, 25 April 2026
[1] IFIMES - International Institute for Middle East and Balkan Studies, based in Ljubljana, Slovenia, has a special consultative status with the United Nations Economic and Social Council ECOSOC/UN in New York since 2018, and it is the publisher of the international scientific journal "European Perspectives."
