The International Institute for Middle East and Balkan Studies (IFIMES)[1], based in Ljubljana, regularly monitors and analyses European integration processes and the ongoing redefinition of relations between the European Union and the Western Balkans. Following the EU–Western Balkans summit held in Tivat on 5 June, IFIMES points to its exceptional political significance in the context of contemporary European developments and enlargement dynamics. The 2026 Tivat summit marks a pivotal moment in which the region’s European perspective is once again reaffirmed, while also being tested by the capacity to turn political messages, conclusions and publicly stated commitments into sustainable institutional and security reforms. In that regard, its impact will depend on whether it remains merely a symbol of diplomatic success or becomes a reference point for the genuine transformation of the Western Balkans’ European integration process. The analysis “EU–Western Balkans summit: new energy and new dynamics in the enlargement process – will Tivat become a new turning point in European enlargement?” sets out the main insights reflecting current trends, structural challenges and possible scenarios for the future course of European enlargement policy.
The European Union–Western Balkans summit, held in Tivat on 5 June 2026, was one of the most important diplomatic and political events in the region’s recent history. The gathering of the highest-ranking European and regional officials sent a strong message of the European Union’s renewed interest in the Western Balkans and the region’s strategic importance in the new geopolitical environment.
Nevertheless, the summit’s true significance will not be measured by ceremonial gestures, group photographs or the mere symbolism of the high-level attendance of European leaders. Its long-term value will depend, above all, on the ability of the regional states to carry out substantive reforms in the areas of the rule of law, institutional strengthening, security and the relentless fight against organised crime and corruption. Unless the criminal-political networks that have weighed down the Western Balkans for decades are dismantled, any declarative support for European integration will remain insufficient.
The message of the Tivat summit was much more than regional – it was deeply geopolitical. In European strategic thinking, the Western Balkans is no longer a region “at a crossroads”, as it was so often described in previous decades. With Romania and Bulgaria now members of both NATO and the European Union, the geopolitical reality has changed. Today, the Western Balkans has become an internal security question for Europe and its most sensitive geopolitical zone – a kind of “soft underbelly” of the European continent.
At a moment of accelerated transformation of the international order, as Europe simultaneously faces the war in Ukraine, deepening global rivalries and increasingly sophisticated hybrid threats, the stability of the Western Balkans has become an issue of the highest order for European security. In these circumstances, any serious political or security destabilisation in the region could limit the European Union’s ability to act on other strategic fronts, while also weakening its overall geopolitical position.
For that reason, Europe requires not only a new enlargement policy, but a comprehensively redefined security architecture for the Western Balkans, anchored in deeper institutional integration, an effective fight against organised crime, the containment of malign external influences and clear mechanisms for sanctioning actors who threaten peace, stability and the region’s European perspective.
The Tivat summit has created a considerable political opening for a new phase in the transformation of relations between the European Union and the Western Balkans. Nevertheless, its true – and potentially historic – value will be confirmed only once political messages are translated into concrete actions, measurable reform results and a visible strengthening of Europe’s security architecture across the Western Balkans.
Held under the motto “Shared prosperity and stability of the EU and the Western Balkans”, the summit brought together leaders from the region and the European Union to discuss the central themes shaping the future of the enlargement process. The talks focused on the gradual integration of the region’s countries into the European Union, implementation of the Growth Plan for the Western Balkans, access to the EU single market, stronger regional economic cooperation and the reinforcement of security, resilience and institutional capacities.
The decision by the European Union, taken immediately prior to the summit, to initiate the inclusion of Western Balkan partners under the “Roam Like at Home” regime carries particular political weight. This initiative is a concrete and visible step forward, delivering the immediate benefits of European integration to the region's citizens while reaffirming the EU’s commitment to making the Western Balkans’ path towards the Union more substantive, tangible and directly relevant to citizens’ everyday lives.
In political terms, Tivat reaffirmed Montenegro’s central role in the Western Balkans’ European integration process. The visit by French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz was not only a diplomatic acknowledgement of Montenegro, but also a clear political signal that the European Union is gradually resuming a more active and strategically defined approach to enlargement policy.
However, the summit’s actual reach and long-term value will be called into question unless it is followed by a genuine, coordinated and operational European response to the region’s growing security challenges and threats. This applies in particular to:
Without concrete results in these areas, political messages and declarative support for the region’s European integration are unlikely to yield lasting change, leaving the significance of the Tivat summit limited to a purely symbolic and diplomatic level. Only sustained action against crime, corruption and destabilising networks can demonstrate that the European Union sees the Western Balkans as an integral part of its own security and political space.
In this context, there is a particular need for clear political and legal articulation of measures against structures that are linked, in public, political and parts of judicial discourse, to long-standing allegations of corruption and organised crime. This concerns networks and actors associated with allegations of institutional abuse, the destabilisation of regional relations, the undermining of fragile peace and the security balance, as well as political projects involving elements of secessionist rhetoric and action, including structures linked to Milorad Dodik (SNSD).
Without a clear, consistent and credible European response to such security and political challenges, any summit – including the one in Tivat – risks remaining merely a symbolic diplomatic gesture, lacking the strategic substance and long-term transformative impact necessary for the stability and European perspective of the Western Balkans.
Slovenia, as a member of the European Union and a state that, thanks to its historical, political and economic experience, is well acquainted with regional processes, could take on a significant role in strengthening European mechanisms for financial oversight, judicial cooperation and monitoring of cross-border criminal networks that connect the Western Balkans with the European Union.
In this regard, a transparent and institutionally grounded examination of the so-called “Dodik case” (Milorad Dodik), along with the consistent strengthening of the independence of the judiciary and other competent institutions, could make an important contribution to the decriminalisation of the Western Balkans’ political and economic sphere. The European Union and its member states should further improve mechanisms for financial control, judicial and security-intelligence cooperation and information exchange in cases involving cross-border organised crime, corruption and illicit political influence on institutions.
Particular attention should be paid to cases in which political structures, financial flows and criminal networks intersect in ways that threaten regional stability, the rule of law and the credibility of the European integration process. Such cases must remain free from political selectivity or geopolitical calculations, guided instead by professional, independent and internationally coordinated institutional action based on evidence and the rule of law.
Any measures taken by a new Slovenian government led by Janez Janša could carry broader regional implications. Their potential contribution to enhancing the fight against organised crime and corruption, promoting institutional accountability and more robustly enforcing European rule-of-law standards could strengthen Slovenia’s credibility within the European Union, while also providing a significant impetus to the European integration process across the Western Balkans. This approach would be consistent with the European Union’s strategic interest in making the region more stable, secure and resilient in the face of political, security-related and criminal challenges.
A key test of European credibility in the Western Balkans lies in the consistent and systemic use of digital evidence obtained through international criminal investigations, especially evidence derived from encrypted communication platforms such as Sky ECC. Decrypting, forensically processing and analysing such data is not just a technical or judicial matter, but also an indicator of political will to dismantle long-standing ties between criminal structures, political actors and segments of the region’s security and intelligence apparatus.
In this context, the importance of uncovering and systematically prosecuting networks linked to such structures can be viewed through the lens of the wider systemic consequences that such exposure could produce, comparable to the impact of the Jeffrey Epstein case in the United States. Such proceedings can have broader institutional effects, revealing the nexus between criminal organisations, financial flows, political actors and parts of the institutional apparatus.
From the perspective of European integration, it is of paramount importance that the decriminalisation and dismantling of such networks be consistent, comprehensive and firmly anchored in the rule of law. This requires the delivery of final court judgments, the effective confiscation of illegally acquired assets and the exposure and sanctioning of protective structures within European Union institutions that enabled or tolerated their activities. Without such a decisive and systemic approach, the Western Balkan countries’ progress towards the European Union will remain limited and unstable, with the region continuously exposed to political, security and institutional risks that could jeopardise its long-term stability and European perspective.
The European integration process remains vulnerable to internal obstruction and external geopolitical influence, including the activities of various interest networks and power structures. Of particular concern are efforts by Russian political, economic and media actors to preserve and project influence in the region, further complicating the institutional consolidation and European transformation of the Western Balkans.
Montenegro successfully hosted the European Union–Western Balkans summit at the highest political and diplomatic level, further affirming its role as an active, reliable and credible partner in regional and European processes. Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs Ervin Ibrahimović made a particular contribution to this success, as did Montenegro’s broader diplomatic infrastructure, including its security and intelligence apparatus, which demonstrated a high degree of organisational efficiency, coordination and political maturity in preparing and delivering this internationally significant summit.
By hosting this event, Montenegro further strengthened its position among the most advanced candidate countries in the European integration process, confirming the continuity of its strategic commitment to the European Union and conveying a clear message of political stability and institutional predictability.
At the same time, the mainstay of Montenegro’s internal political stability and European path remains the Parliament of Montenegro, as the central institution of legislative power and the bearer of political responsibility for the pace of reform. Distinct responsibility and political weight rest with Parliament Speaker Andrija Mandić, especially in preserving functional institutional dialogue, improving legislative efficiency and adopting EU-related legislation that is a prerequisite for further progress in the European integration process.
Without a stable institutional framework, the preservation of multi-ethnic harmony and an efficient legislative process, Montenegro’s European ambitions remain structurally limited. It is therefore essential to maintain political unity and the consistent, continuous commitment of all parliamentary actors to accelerating the European path through the adoption of reform legislation and full alignment with the European Union acquis.
Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić’s participation in the Tivat summit carried clear political and geopolitical significance, as it further highlighted the question of Serbia’s strategic positioning amid the complex interplay of power among the European Union, the United States, the Russian Federation and China. In this context, President Vučić noted that “Tivat 2026 brought new energy and fresh momentum to the European Union enlargement process”, stressing that this regional format provides an important impetus for revitalising the European perspective of the Western Balkans.
This message may be read as a signal that, despite complex geopolitical circumstances, there is still room for the gradual restoration of trust between Brussels and the countries of the region, provided that the European path is accompanied by credible reform outcomes and clearly articulated political commitments.
For Serbia, it is particularly important that European integration not be seen primarily through the prism of foreign policy balancing between major powers, but as a substantive domestic reform process. This means accelerating reforms in the rule of law and electoral legislation, strengthening institutional independence, improving media freedoms and ensuring consistent alignment with European standards and practices.
The announced implementation of the Venice Commission’s recommendations could be an important indicator of political will, but only if accompanied by precisely defined deadlines, transparent legislative procedures and broad political consensus capable of ensuring the sustainability and credibility of the reform process.
The statements made by French President Emmanuel Macron, who identified Serbia as one of the leading states in the Western Balkans, attracted particular attention. President Vučić interpreted this assessment as confirmation that the leading European powers recognise Serbia’s importance for regional stability, economic development and the broader political trajectory of South-East Europe.
At the same time, it was emphasised that Serbia is expected to continue pursuing reforms, attracting foreign investment and strengthening economic competitiveness to further consolidate its position as a leading regional economic actor and re-establish its role as a “locomotive” of European integration. The question of renewed negotiating momentum also comes to the fore, including the possible opening of a new cluster in the near future, as accession talks have slowed since the beginning of the war in Ukraine. The ultimate objective remains for citizens to experience tangible benefits from European integration, such as a higher standard of living, new investment and more stable economic prospects.
However, the messages from European leaders were both encouraging and clearly conditional. Especially significant was German Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s message that the European Union must show not only political will, but also the institutional capacity for enlargement. This means that responsibility does not rest solely with the candidate countries, but also with the Union itself, which must develop mechanisms capable of making enlargement more credible, more dynamic and politically sustainable.
This is precisely the key challenge facing Serbia: amid its balancing act between different global power centres, Belgrade is confronted with strategic choices that will, in the long term, determine not only the momentum of European integration, but also the country’s overall geopolitical position in the years ahead.
The historical experience of the Western Balkans shows that the region’s countries achieve the greatest stability and development momentum when they are embedded in broader political and economic integration frameworks. In this respect, the European Union remains the only strategic framework capable of securing the region’s long-term institutional consolidation, political stability and sustainable economic development.
The new German-French initiative on gradual, “step-by-step accession” is therefore an important attempt to break the years-long stagnation in the enlargement process. Yet it will have limited effect unless accompanied by the parallel strengthening of the rule of law, institutional resilience and security architecture across the Western Balkans.
Responsibility for the pace of the process, however, does not rest solely with the countries of the region. The European Union must overcome its increasingly pronounced enlargement fatigue, internal political blockages and the practice of using technical and procedural arguments to defer strategic decisions. The credibility of enlargement policy depends on the Union’s ability to offer clear timelines, tangible benefits and a credible political guarantee that meeting the criteria will genuinely lead to full membership.
Regional political support within the Western Balkans itself also plays a significant role. Slovenian Prime Minister Janez Janša has repeatedly stressed that Slovenia remains a consistent advocate of European Union enlargement to the Western Balkans. He welcomed the fact that enlargement policy is once again high on the EU agenda, while warning that existing bureaucratic and procedural mechanisms are slowing the process at a time when geopolitical circumstances demand faster and more decisive action.
He argued that the European Union must develop more efficient and flexible models for integrating candidate countries, since any institutional or political vacuum in the region could create space for other global actors to expand their influence. As emphasised, Slovenia will continue to provide strong and consistent support to the Western Balkan states on their European path, viewing enlargement as a strategic interest for both the European Union and the entire region.
The Tivat summit could become a new reference point in European Union enlargement policy, but only on one condition: that the political will articulated at the summit is translated into concrete, measurable and consistently implemented measures against corruption, organised crime and destabilising political structures.
Otherwise, the Tivat summit will be remembered merely as a diplomatic episode, lacking the capacity to become a genuine historic turning point in relations between the European Union and the Western Balkans.
The International Institute IFIMES considers that a time-sensitive political window of opportunity has now opened and must not be missed. If it closes, the region could once again enter a cycle of prolonged instability, institutional weakness and geopolitical fragmentation, with the risk of a long-term drift away from its European perspective and strategic integration into the European Union.
Ljubljana/Washington/Brussels/Podgorica, 11 June 2026
[1] IFIMES - International Institute for Middle East and Balkan Studies, based in Ljubljana, Slovenia, has a special consultative status with the United Nations Economic and Social Council ECOSOC/UN in New York since 2018, and it is the publisher of the international scientific journal "European Perspectives." Available at: https://www.europeanperspectives.org/en
[2] SKY ECC was not an "ordinary chat application" but a closed, highly encrypted communication system that gained notoriety primarily for its use in organised crime and its subsequent police infiltration and surveillance operations.
