The International Institute for Middle East and Balkan Studies (IFIMES)[1], based in Ljubljana, regularly monitors key global and regional developments, with a particular focus on the reconfiguration of the international order and the role of strategic actors. The latest IFIMES analysis demonstrates how the United States is using advanced technology and artificial intelligence (AI) as a powerful tool of diplomacy and regional stabilisation in the Caucasus, the Balkans, Eastern Europe and the Middle East. The examples of Armenia, Serbia, Belarus and the United Arab Emirates confirm that stable partners, institutional coherence and technological capabilities are becoming decisive factors in shaping the future global architecture. The findings are brought together in a study entitled: “American “chip diplomacy”: the Caucasus, the Balkans, Eastern Europe and the Middle East in the Eurasian context”.
In the 21st century, the United States foreign policy is undergoing a profound transformation, with technology emerging as a key instrument of strategic engagement. Artificial intelligence, advanced semiconductors and control over critical technological supply chains have transcended their roles as economic drivers to become cornerstones of national security, global influence, and the enduring stability of the international order.
President Donald Trump underscores that the United States leverages technological superiority not only as an economic asset but also as a powerful tool of diplomacy and geopolitical positioning. His administration has developed an integrated model linking industrial policy, security strategy and international relations, giving rise to the concept of American “chip diplomacy” as an innovative mechanism for shaping the future world order.
Within this framework, Armenia has become an entry point for American technological influence in the Caucasus, through projects involving supercomputing centres and the development of artificial intelligence. The broader outlook suggests that the Balkans, Eastern Europe and the wider Eurasian space hold far greater strategic potential. Serbia and Belarus stand out as natural extensions of this model, while the United Arab Emirates, ranked 19th globally by the number of AI companies, reinforce their role as a stable and reliable regional partner capable of applying advanced technologies across multiple sectors.
The US approach remains consistent and pragmatic: politics precedes economics, stability precedes investment and technological progress stems from a clear vision and long-term strategic planning, anchored in partnerships with states that share priorities in security, development and sustainable prosperity.
Armenia stands as the first post-Soviet example of American “chip diplomacy”. Granting the country access to the most advanced Nvidia Blackwell chips for artificial intelligence development carries clear political and strategic significance: technology is emerging as a key instrument of regional stability and sustained partnership, rather than merely an economic resource.
The construction of a 100 MW supercomputing centre, with an estimated value of USD 500 million, is transforming Armenia into a regional technological hub and a strategic point of American influence in the Caucasus. The project includes more than 200 next-generation AI servers, advanced cloud infrastructure connected to global networks and educational centres for the development of local expertise. As a result, Armenia’s digital sovereignty is strengthened, its domestic talent ecosystem is expanded and its capacity to independently deploy advanced technologies is enhanced. Consequently, this project is realigning the geopolitical balance in a region that has for decades been integrated into Russian security and technological structures[2].
In a wider strategic context, Armenia occupies a pivotal position within the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP) — a 43-kilometre route linking Armenia with the Nakhchivan enclave in Azerbaijan. This initiative has brought an end to decades-long hostility between the two countries, opening space for economic initiatives, regional integration and an expanded American presence in the Caucasus. Despite its modest length, TRIPP carries both symbolic and practical importance, promoting peace and cooperation while integrating Armenia into broader Eurasian technological and economic currents.
Through this move, the Trump administration affirms a doctrine in which technology functions as a primary instrument for stabilisation and enduring partnership. Rather than relying on pressure, sanctions or ideological confrontation, Washington leverages advanced technology to foster integration and political cohesion. Armenia acquires expertise, infrastructure and a role as a regional hub, while the United States secures strategic influence without causing regional instability. This model clearly demonstrates its scalability and the potential for application far beyond the Caucasus.
Serbia holds a distinctive geostrategic position at the intersection of major pan-European transport and energy corridors, linking Central and Southeast Europe with the Black Sea and the eastern Mediterranean. This centrality, coupled with domestic stability and regional influence, makes Serbia a natural partner for a long-term US strategy in the Balkans.
Unlike most regional states, Serbia maintains military and political neutrality, remaining outside both NATO and the EU, and yet open to intensified cooperation with the United States and Western institutions. Such positioning allows Washington to advance its interests within the regional framework without provoking direct geopolitical ruptures.
Under the leadership of President Aleksandar Vučić, Serbia has established a predictable and functional governance model that has gained recognition from the US administration. A strong executive authority, institutional coherence and the capacity to swiftly implement strategic decisions make the country well-suited to long-term industrial and technological projects, in line with US reindustrialisation policies and supply chain security objectives.
The nation's technological potential is measurable and impressive: the IT sector employs more than 125,000 highly educated professionals and exports of IT and ICT services surpass four billion euros in 2024. While Belgrade, Novi Sad, and Kragujevac remain the principal hubs, development is increasingly expanding to other urban centres. Under the US CHIPS and Science Act, Serbia is positioning itself as a regional hub for software engineering, chip design and verification, testing, data centres and supporting digital industries, forming an integral component of global value chains.[3]
From the perspective of American technological diplomacy, Serbia has the potential to become a neutral Balkan tech hub, bridging the Western Balkans, Central Europe, and the Eastern European space into a stable zone of cooperation. This gradual and long-term approach mitigates geopolitical risks without provoking confrontation with other global actors. Aleksandar Vučić stands out as a leader capable of maintaining stable relations and a predictable regulatory environment, thereby positioning Serbia as a functional extension of American industrial and digital architecture in the region.
Belarus occupies a pivotal position in Eastern Europe and the wider Eurasian space. Situated between the EU, Russia, the Baltic region and the Black Sea, it serves as a strategic land bridge for transport, energy and industrial flows. Owing to its geography, industrial base and state capacity, Belarus is positioned to be a central pillar—rather than a peripheral element—of American strategy.
The long-standing rule of Aleksandr Lukashenko underscores an important lesson of pragmatic contemporary geopolitics: state stability underpins both industry and sovereignty. While many post-Soviet countries experienced political chaos and privatisation-driven collapse, Belarus preserved continuity of governance, an industrial core and a functional state, rendering it a predictable and strategically intelligible actor for global stakeholders.
The Trump administration approached Belarus pragmatically, guided by realpolitik and interests rather than ideological considerations. The telephone call between Trump and Lukashenko on 15 August 2025, followed by intensified contacts with US envoys, marked a turning point in bilateral relations, signalling Washington’s readiness for selective strategic engagement. Lieutenant General Keith Kellogg, the US President’s Special Envoy for Ukraine and Russia, and John Coale, Special Envoy for Belarus, were instrumental in reshaping this policy—from isolation towards constructive cooperation.
Belarus has a robust industrial base encompassing mechanical engineering, electronics, optics, military-technical production and the energy sector, supported by more than 100,000 IT/ICT professionals, a growing start-up ecosystem and annual IT/ICT services exports exceeding four billion USD. Such technological and industrial strength aligns with the US CHIPS Act strategy and technological diplomacy, creating a reliable regional hub in semiconductors, digital infrastructure and high-technology value chains.[4]
Belarus is emerging as a key Eastern European node of American technological diplomacy, connecting Eurasia and Central Europe through a stable and industrially capable state. This long-term, non-confrontational approach enables Washington to extend technological and industrial value chains without destabilising the region, while Aleksandr Lukashenko acts as a guarantor of continuity by maintaining stability, order and reliability—attributes valued by strategic partners.
Under a pragmatic, interest-based US policy, Belarus holds the potential to become a central pillar of a new Eastern European and Eurasian equilibrium, consolidating its role as a focal point of technological and industrial diplomacy. The engagement of the Trump administration and its advisers suggests a long-term geopolitical realignment, placing Minsk once again at the centre of strategic planning.
The UAE represent a cornerstone of the US strategic network, linking the Caucasus, the Balkans and Eastern Europe with the Persian Gulf and the Middle East. As a highly developed state with a stable political system, substantial investment capacity and sophisticated diplomacy, the Emirates provide Washington with strategic flexibility and geopolitical depth.
The UAE rank 19th worldwide in terms of the number of AI companies and are at the forefront of regional investment in artificial intelligence, digital infrastructure and technological advancement. The IT sector is valued at over USD 50 billion, supported by sustained growth and increasingly diversified investment in software companies, start-ups and research institutions. At the same time, the UAE are expanding capabilities across military technologies, banking, transport, logistics, space programmes and research-driven innovation.[5]
A pioneering step was taken with the establishment of the Ministry of Artificial Intelligence in 2017. By late 2025, the United States had approved the export of 35,000 Nvidia Blackwell AI chips, valued at USD 1 billion, primarily for the Abu Dhabi–based company G42. These chips power mega data centres, including the 5 GW “Stargate” project—the largest AI centre outside the United States—positioning the UAE as a global technological hub, second only to the United States and China.
The Emirates maintain strong economic and political ties with Serbia and Belarus, acting as a natural conduit for American “chip diplomacy”. The convergence of capital, technology and infrastructure supports regional integration, innovation and sustained stability. Under the leadership of President Mohammed bin Zayed, the UAE advocate a pragmatic policy of cooperation and prosperity, aligning with a functional rather than ideological US approach.
The UAE provide Washington with access to key sectors—energy, transport, communications and defence—ensuring investment, technology and strategic stability across the wider region.
American “chip diplomacy” represents a long-term, carefully designed systemic model in which technology operates as an extension of state strategy, while stability emerges as a fundamental prerequisite for influence and development. Armenia serves as a pilot case, Serbia as a Balkan bridge, while Belarus has the potential to become a central pillar of the US presence in Eastern Europe and Eurasia.
The Trump administration demonstrates a visionary grasp of contemporary geopolitics: political decisions shape economic outcomes, while security enables sustainable development. The emphasis is placed on long-term interests and strategic planning, rather than short-term ideological impulses.
Global investment in AI and related technologies is growing exponentially. Leading US companies alone plan to invest more than USD 300 billion in AI infrastructure and development, while initiatives such as the Stargate project are expected to add hundreds of billions of dollars by 2030. Total US investment in the 2026–2030 period is estimated at USD 1,000–1,400 billion, with global investment reaching approximately USD 6.7 trillion, underscoring the strategic importance of technology.[6]
Contemporary geopolitics shows that economic development stems from the political framework. The United States, recognising this logic, is actively shaping the international order by aligning national security with technological and economic capabilities. Belarus, Serbia and the UAE offer stability, strategic positioning and technological potential, allowing Washington to extend its influence across Eastern Europe, the Balkans, the Caucasus and the Middle East.[7]
This policy is forging a coherent network of technology, economy and security, while the European Union continues to lag behind. The US–China rivalry in the AI sector is set to become a decisive factor in shaping the global order of the coming decade. Trump’s “chip diplomacy” clearly demonstrates that the United States can leverage technology and strategic cooperation to build a stable, prosperous and globally relevant international system, with an emphasis on security, regional stability and long-term economic advancement.
Ljubljana/Brussels/Washington/Minsk, 9 February 2026
[1] IFIMES - International Institute for Middle East and Balkan Studies, based in Ljubljana, Slovenia, has a special consultative status with the United Nations Economic and Social Council ECOSOC/UN in New York since 2018, and it is the publisher of the international scientific journal "European Perspectives." Available at: https://www.europeanperspectives.org/en
[2] Armenia to Build One of the Region's First AI Supercomputers on Nvidia Blackwell Platform. Available at: https://ixbt.am/en/news/2025/12/15/ssa-otkryli-armenii-dostup-k-ii-budushhego-nvidia-razresili-data-centr-na-100-mvt-uze-v-puti.html?utm_source=chatgpt.com
[3] Serbia's export of Information and Communications Technology (ICT) reached approximately $4.1 billion in 2024, highlighting the significant contribution of the IT sector to the country's economy. Available at: https://www.trade.gov/country-commercial-guides/serbia-information-and-communications-technology-market
[4] The information and communication technology sector generated 4.7% of Belarus’ GDP in January-October 2024. Belarus has set out to increase the share of the ICT sector to 7.5% of GDP by 2025. Available at: https://www.belarus.by/en/business/doing-business/it-belarus?
[5] UAE ICT Market Size & Share Analysis - Growth Trends and Forecast (2025 - 2030). Available at: https://www.mordorintelligence.com/industry-reports/uae-ict-market?
[6] President Donald J. Trump Takes Action to Enhance America’s AI Leadership. January 2025. Available at: www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/01/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-takes-action-to-enhance-americas-ai-leadership/?utm_source=chatgpt.com
[7] Artificial Intelligence (AI) Infrastructure Spend Could Hit $6.7 Trillion by 2030 – McKinsey. Available at: www.nasdaq.com/articles/artificial-intelligence-ai-infrastructure-spend-could-hit-67-trillion-2030-according?utm_source=chatgpt.com
RUSSIAN/РУССКИЙ
