Nuclear Realism and Japan’s Choice: The Comparative Limitations of the Saudi Model and the Justification for Independent Nuclear Armament under a "Three-Front Nuclear Threat"

This study tests whether the “Saudi Model” of nuclear restraint—based on external deterrence, strategic ambiguity and nuclear hedging—can be applied to Japan. It finds that Japan’s exposure to China, Russia and North Korea fundamentally changes the strategic calculus, making the Saudi model structurally inapplicable to East Asia.