Global Disorder and the Unravelling of Strategic Certainties: ‘Where Next, and What Next?’

The key global issue remains the uninterrupted passage of oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran has in principle accepted. However, the U.S. under Trump ties this to full American control over Iran’s nuclear program, resulting in a renewed deadlock. While Trump presents the talks as positive, Iran stays cautious. The question is whether he will frame the status quo as a “peaceful victory,” despite ongoing escalation influenced in part by Netanyahu.