The IFIMES International Institute has carried out the last public opinion survey in Montenegro before the announced presidential election which is to take place on 6 April 2008. In Montenegro there are 490,412 registered voters.
Four candidates are competing at the presidential election:
- Nebojša Medojević, the Movement for Change (PzP) candidate
- Andrija Mandić, the Serbian List (SL) candidate
- Srđan Milić, the Socialist People's Party of Montenegro (SNP) candidate
- Filip Vujanović, the Democratic Party of Socialists of Montenegro (DPS) candidate
Research has shown that it is not the personalities of candidates and the programmes they offer but the support of the political party centre which has access to the instruments of power that will decide the presidential election in Montenegro For almost 20 years, that mechanism of power has been in the hands of the current Prime Minister of Montenegro and President of DPS Milo Đukanović who has been performing the Prime Minister function for the fifth time.
Thus the presidential candidate and the incumbent President of Montenegro Filip Vujanović, who is overshadowed by Milo Đukanović's total political control, is not the charismatic personality in the leading DPS-SDP (Social Democratic Party) coalition. In order to prevent political turbulence in the ruling elite, Milo Đukanović presented again Filip Vujanović as presidential candidate. Almost anybody could be elected president of Montenegro with the support of Milo Đukanović's political infrastructure. However, Vujanović is obviously not well suited for the role of Đukanović's marionette and represents the type of politician who does not think with his own head.
His campaign is focused on presenting the opposition as the anti-state element and showing Filip Vujanović as the patriot. Vujanović's wife Svetlana Vujanović, the judge of the Court of Appeal and member of the Judicial Council of Montenegro, appeared on 23 February 2008 at the election meeting of the Democratic Party of Socialists of Montenegro where the presidential campaign for Filip Vujanović was launched. This raises serious doubts as to the impartiality of judicial power in Montenegro.
A parallel can be drawn between the motives of voters at the parliamentary and presidential elections in Montenegro: the first two motives are the election programme and membership in certain political party, while the party leader's or presidential candidate's image is of the least importance.
Thus the personal image of presidential candidate or party leader is not of key importance for the voters' decisions – although important, it is not a dominant factor. At the moment independent candidates have poor chances of sound election results since one third of voters vote for certain political candidate only because he/she belongs to the party they have voted for.
PSYCHOLOGICAL DECEIT
The favourite of the first round of presidential election in Montenegro is the leading DPS-SDP coalition candidate Filip Vujanović. However, if the elections are to be fair and free, Vujanović can not be the winner already in the first round. Therefore more stringent control over the election process is necessary. Public opinion polls have shown that it is not very likely that candidate Vujanović would receive as much as 50% + 1 vote. Nevertheless, the ruling regime has published surveys which announce Vujanović's victory already in the first round in order to psychologically deceive the citizens by creating the atmosphere of Vujanović's victory.
As far as minorities are concerned, Vujanović has very slim chances for support in comparison with Nebojša Medojević. Vujanović namely belongs/belonged to the regime which participated in the war against Dubrovnik, which deported Muslim Bosniaks and which never condemned attacks at Muslim Bosniaks in Bukovica and Štrpci, the regime which even today still does not feel the need to apologise to the citizens of Bosnia and Herzegovina for crimes Montenegro was involved in during the last war. Once again, Đukanović's regime will try to manipulate the minorities, mainly Bosniaks and Albanians.
However, minority nations have recognised Nebojša Medojević as their candidate, since in all of his public activities he has always advocated minorities, democracy and reform. Until now the minorities represented the decisive reserve votes for the ruling regime.
DPS voters find it increasingly difficult to understand the appetites of their leaders and the fact that DPS voters are becoming poorer and poorer while DPS leaders, their friends and godfathers are becoming increasingly rich.
For successful presidential elections Montenegro needs unity and co-operation among the opposition which has presented three presidential candidates. This may serve as an advantage in the eventual runoff presidential election which would, bearing in mind the present situation, be fought between Filip Vujanović and Nebojša Medojević.
MEDOJEVIĆ – THE MOST PROMISING CANDIDATE FOR THE RUNOFF ELECTION
In addition to PzP Medojević also enjoys the support of minorities. Two Albanian political parties, the Albanian Alternative and Forca, have already publicly announced their support to Medojević.
It may be expected that the Bosniaks will not vote for Vujanović after the negative statements made by the Muslim community leader Mustafa Cerić against Vujanović regarding the deportation of Bosniaks and events in Bukovica during the war in Bosnia and Herzegovina which were carried out during Filip Vujanović's terms of office as the Minister of Justice, Minister of the Interior and Prime Minister of Montenegro. Moreover, Vujanović has close connections with the controversial Metropolitan of Serbian Orthodox Church in Montenegro Amfilohije Radović.
In the Montenegrin public Medojević is known as a fighter against crime and corruption. Medojević's entry in the eventual runoff presidential election would be the consequence of the very negative image of Milo Đukanović's regime, his business undertakings, dubious transactions and illegal constructions of the leading members of his regime. As a form of pressure against the opposition candidate, Radio and Television Public Service of Montenegro stopped the broadcasting of the election campaign for the PzP candidate Nebojša Medojević on 29 March 2008.
Presidential candidate Srđan Milić (SNP) has virtually no chances to win although he offers great potential for the future, while Andrija Mandić (SL) lacks the width to protect all the nations in Montenegro. Mandić insists on ties with Serbia and Russia, which is not the reality for Montenegro. His priorities are the construction of highways and gas pipes with the assistance of Serbia and Russia in order to increase employment, which is, nevertheless, not the responsibility of President of the Republic.
MONTENEGRO – "MONEY LAUNDRY"
According to UNDP about EUR 66 to 110 million annually are laundered in Montenegro, and according to the US State Department and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) the volume of money laundering in Montenegro can be assessed to represent 3 to 5 % of gross domestic product, which was in 2007 estimated at EUR 2.2 billion.
Although in transitional societies economic issues are as a rule the dominant topic of election campaigns, Montenegro obviously does not pay much attention to this question.
The respect of human rights is at a low level in Montenegro. Amnesty International asked the EU Enlargement Commissioner Olly Rehn to discuss violations of human rights in Montenegro at the EU Troika meeting with Montenegrin representatives in February 2008.
Amnesty International focused on three cases: the delay in the process against six suspects for the deportation of 83 Bosniaks, alleged torture of prisoners in detention and extortion of confessions from Albanians arrested during the "Eagle's Flight" action.
Moreover, over 1000 days have passed since the murder of Duško Jovanović , editor-in-chief of the Montenegrin daily "Dan", and the culprits still have not been found and punished.
The election campaign is running in a rather calm atmosphere, although marked by fierce accusations among presidential candidates.
Almost two decades of Milo Đukanović's DPS regime have brought the Montenegrin society to a miserable condition. An illustrative indicator of the situation in the society are the data on corruption, according to which Montenegro is the 84th of all together 179 countries which were included in the survey on corruption. Thus Montenegro is ranked at the same position as Gabon, Jamaica, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Lesotho, Maldives, Kiribati, Swaziland, Thailand and Macedonia (Source: Transparency International Corruption Perceptions Index 2007).
In order to fight corruption, Montenegro needs a national commission for fighting corruption and organised crime which would be composed of the representatives of the government, public prosecutor's office, justice as well as domestic and foreign experts, following the model of some countries which had problems with corruption and organised crime and which gathered all their creative and honest potentials around certain centres of political power in order to overcome this social anomaly.
PRIME MINISTER ĐUKANOVIĆ'S MAFIA CONNECTIONS?
Over six-hour hearing of Prime Minister Milo Đukanović in Bari on 28 March 2008 regarding the accusations for his mafia connections in cigarette smuggling should be a sufficient reason for Đukanović never to work in politics again. That would have been the case in any democratic country. Since Đukanović is protected by diplomatic immunity, the Bari case still has not been concluded. The hearing of Prime Minister Đukanović for his suspected mafia activities was just the last drop to overflow the cup of bitterness of Montenegrin citizens.
The hearing of Montenegrin Prime Minister by the prosecution of another state (Italy) represents a historical precedent.
Milo Đukanović and Momir Bulatović came to Montenegro's political scene in 1989 literally from the street in the framework of the so called anti-bureaucratic revolution organised and directed by Slobodan Milošević. A special characteristic of Milo Đukanović is that as Montenegro's representative in the former Federal Conference of the Union of Socialist Youth of Yugoslavia (SK SSOJ) at the end 1980s he was an open follower of Slobodan Milošević's politics unlike the majority of youth representatives at that time who were the holders of democratic changes.
When the war was raging in Bosnia and Herzegovina in 1992 some of its citizens tried to find refuge and temporary protection in Montenegro. But instead of protecting them Montenegro handed over the citizens of Bosnia and Herzegovina (Bosniaks) to the authorities of Republic of Srpska. There is still nothing known on the destiny of those people. The president of Montenegro's Government at that time was Milo Đukanović.
Analysts have noted that Milo Đukanović's regime is one of the last autocratic regimes in Europe. His DPS party lacks a clear ideological matrix. Instead, it is taking advantage of the political discourse with a short-term useful value. Its main preoccupations are gaining immense benefits for DPS leaders, expressing loyalty to the party and faithfulness to the leader and stressing the party bureaucracy rather than supporting and strengthening state administration. As a backdrop DPS uses typical rhetoric on the modern Montenegro and Euro-Atlantic integrations in order to remain in power and develop the so called positive uncertainty among the citizens which is not based on reality. Montenegro is thus locked in a vicious circle of politics, mafia and crime. The regime is trying to remain in power by constantly deceiving the public. At the recent EU ministerial meeting in Brdo pri Kranju (Slovenia), Montenegrin Foreign Minister Milan Roćen stated that Montenegro is increasingly becoming a European and less and less a Balkan state, which does not reflect the Montenegrin reality and represents another attempt to deceive European public. Obviously, Milo Đukanović's regime has found itself in deep crisis.
The IFIMES International Institute is of the opinion that it is of crucial importance for democracy in Montenegro to have the runoff presidential election and give a chance to the opposition candidate to take over the highest position in Montenegro. That would represent the beginning of the fall of the almost twenty-year regime of Milo Đukanović, the only communist autocrat in the region. The forthcoming presidential election is therefore of decisive importance for future democratic processes in Montenegro.
PUBLIC OPINION POLL
Data on the sample:
- The sample: random, three-stage
- Size of the sample: 1.040 respondents (male and female citizens of lawful age)
- Methodology: telephone survey
- Period: March 24 to 28, 2008
- Degree of reliability: 95%
- Control: per 10% specimens
- Standard deviation: +/- 3
- Territory: Montenegro
WOULD YOU TAKE PART IN THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS IN MONTENEGRO IF THEY WERE HELD TODAY?
- YES 69,40 %
- NO 16,70 %
- I DON'T KNOW 13,90 %
Data on the sample:
- The sample: random, three-stage
- Size of the sample: 1.040 respondents (male and female citizens of lawful age)
- Methodology: telephone survey
- Period: March 24 to 28, 2008
- Degree of reliability: 95%
- Control: per 10% specimens
- Standard deviation: +/- 3
- Territory: Montenegro
WHO WOULD YOU VOTE FOR IF THE ELECTIONS WERE HELD TODAY IN MONTENEGRO?
- NEBOJŠA MEDOJEVIĆ 26,40 %
- ANDRIJA MANDIĆ 17,70 %
- SRĐAN MILIĆ 10,10 %
- FILIP VUJANOVIĆ 45,80 %
Data on the sample:
- The sample: random, three-stage
- Size of the sample: 1.040 respondents (male and female citizens of lawful age)
- Methodology: telephone survey
- Period: March 24 to 28, 2008
- Degree of reliability: 95%
- Control: per 10% specimens
- Standard deviation: +/- 3
- Territory: Montenegro
HOW EFFICIENT ARE THE MONTENEGRIN CURRENT AUTHORITIES IN FIGHTING ORGANISED CRIME AND CORRUPTION?
- EFFICIENT 20,40 %
- NOT EFFICIENT 65,70 %
- UNDECIDED 13,90 %
Ljubljana, 03 April 2008
